Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Russell WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Broncos vs. Colts
Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 231.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 231.5 (-110) after it opened @ 227.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- The Indianapolis Colts defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 7.38 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-most in football.
- The Indianapolis Colts linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst collection of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.
Cons
- The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 8th-least in the NFL.
- Russell Wilson’s passing precision has worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 65.3% to 59.0%.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 8th-lowest rate in football versus the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season (68.5%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
257
Passing Yards
257
Passing Yards
