Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Week 1 in the NFL features a battle of the birds. The Eagles will be traveling to Atlanta to take on the Falcons, and both teams are coming off disappointing years in 2020-21. Both will be looking to bounce back this season, so grabbing a victory in Week 1 would be a step in the right direction.
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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Atlanta Falcons Week 1 Odds
Date/time: September 12, 1 p.m.. ET
Arena: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
How to watch: Fox
Opening odds: Falcons -3.5 | O/U 46.5
Latest Eagles-Falcons odds
Looking for the latest odds for this matchup? Here they are, with the best prices from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Falcons -3.5
- Total: 48.5
For up-to-date odds, check out DraftKings Sportsbook.
Opening odds – Eagles vs. Falcons
This matchup features two teams that aren’t expected to be contenders this season. The Eagles were a disappointing 4-11-1 last year, while the Falcons were slightly worse at 4-12. Both teams also struggled against the spread, with the Eagles going 6-10 and the Falcons going 7-9.
The line in this matchup has held steady at Falcons -3.5, but there has been some movement on the total. The number has increased from 46.5 to 48.5 thanks to some early betting activity on the over.
Quarterback analysis – Jalen Hurts vs. Matt Ryan
This is a battle of old school vs. new school at the quarterback position. Jalen Hurts will enter his first season as the Eagles starting quarterback, and he possesses a tantalizing skill set. He was extremely productive as a true freshman at Alabama and finished his collegiate career with an 89.7 QBR. His average of 9.7 adjusted yards per attempt ranks 20th all-time, putting him just behind this year’s No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence.
Of course, where Hurts really makes his money is with his legs. He possesses elite athleticism for the quarterback position, and he blazed a 4.59 40-yard dash in the pre-draft process. He put his athleticism on display in his three full starts last season, averaging just under 80 rushing yards per game. If Hurts can show some progression as a passer, he has a chance to be a special player.
On the other side, Matt Ryan is your traditional pocket passer. Unfortunately, he appears to be on the downside of his career at 36 years old. His numbers were fine on the surface last season — 4,581 passing yards, 26 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions — but he wasn’t great from an efficiency standpoint. He finished with the most attempts in the league, but he ranked merely 20th in adjusted net yards per attempt.
Now he’ll have to survive without his long-term security blanket Julio Jones. Per the FTN Bets splits tool, he hasn’t been quite the same player in games without Jones since 2011:
Perhaps Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts will be enough to offset that loss, but there are reasons to be skeptical with Ryan this season.
Latest Eagles betting news & info
The Eagles showed some signs of life after making the switch to Hurts last season. They went 2-2 against the spread, and one of those losses was by just half a point. They also managed to secure an outright victory over the Saints despite being 7.5-point underdogs. The over also went 3-1 in Hurts’ four starts.
Philly still doesn’t seem 100% committed to Hurts as their franchise quarterback, but he will be in a better position for success this season. The team used their first-round pick on DeVonta Smith, who is coming off a historical season at Alabama. Last year’s first-rounder Jalen Reagor should also be more productive following an injury-plagued rookie season, while tight ends Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz will give Hurts solid targets underneath. The Falcons ranked just 19th in points per game allowed last year, so the Eagles’ offense could impress to start the season.
Latest Falcons betting news & info
The Falcons are known for being an explosive offensive team, but Ryan has actually been a profitable under quarterback. The under has gone 108-93-4 with Ryan under-center in the regular season, including a mark of 9-7 last year.
Ryan has also struggled historically as a home favorite. He owns a record of 36-42-2 in that situation during the regular season, and he was 1-4 against the spread as a home favorite last year.
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Eagles vs. Falcons betting picks – NFL Week 1
I’m bullish on Hurts and the Eagles in this matchup. Their offense should ascend in Hurts’ first full season as a starter, while the Falcons’ offense is clearly on the decline. Maybe Pitts can keep them afloat, but I’m skeptical that a rookie tight end can fill the shoes of one of the greatest receivers in league history.
I think the way these teams approached the preseason could also be a factor. The Eagles got some reps for Hurts and the starting offense, while Ryan didn’t take a single snap. He could be a bit rusty in his first game action since last year.
I would also give a slight lean to the over, but I would’ve preferred it at the original number. The Falcons’ offense has historically struggled sans Jones, so they might not hold up their end of the bargain if this total goes much higher.
Here are our betting picks for Eagles vs. Falcons in Week 1.
FTNBets best bets
- Eagles +3.5
- Over 48.5
For more information, betting picks, and analysis, check out the FTN NFL Bet Tracker.
How to bet on this game
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