Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Week 1 of the college football season brings a full slate on Labor Day weekend. This is a tremendous opportunity to take the value oddsmakers give us before adjusting to what’s happening on the field. Some of our best plays will come before the end of the first month.
One of the simplest ways to walk away a bigger winner each college football Saturday is to take advantage of parlays. Stacking lines and totals offer tremendously good value compared to individual bets. Of course we want to jump into the action.
We have three great parlays available that we had to jump on. We’ll continue to break down the main slate like this for each week of the season. Welcome to Week 1.
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Nevada Wolfpack at California Golden Bears (10:30 p.m. ET Saturday)
(Cal -3.5, O/U 52.5, FanDuel Sportsbook)
We begin with a West Coast battle featuring a potential first-round quarterback in Carson Strong and one of the elite defenses in the country for Cal. The Nevada Wolfpack enter this game with a nice line for a road underdog, and we’re seeing a moderate total. These two teams haven’t played since 2012 and each is in a unique place for their program, so this will be a great late-night battle.
Nevada boasts an excellent passing attack behind Strong’s huge frame and arm. To boot, Nevada had a quality defense in their nine 2020 games as well. I think they’re being undervalued in this matchup even against Cal.
Cal has an abysmal offense incapable of producing consistently. Though their defense is one of the best in the country, this team will struggle to move the ball and convert scoring opportunities. I like the cover by Nevada and to hit the under.
Our bet: Nevada +3.5 (-124) and Under 52.5 (-110), parlay for +245
Ohio State Buckeyes at Minnesota Golden Gophers (8 p.m. ET Thursday)
(Ohio State -13.5, O/U 64.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
We’re about to see a new cast of Buckeyes yet again, as the program lost a slew of key playmakers to the NFL. This version of Ohio State looks as athletic as ever, but there’s a lack of proven competence at key positions. Starting off against Minnesota on the road is less than ideal.
However, getting Ohio State at less than two touchdowns is fantastic. The Buckeyes will dominate on the ground with their massive offensive line and with big plays thanks to their incredible receiving corps. The defense is talented and deep again as well.
Minnesota will find some success with veteran quarterback Tanner Morgan and a healthy run game. They won’t score with the Buckeyes as the game progresses, though. This will turn into a solid blowout but not a high-scoring affair.
Our bet: Ohio State -13.5 (-120) and Under 64.5 (-115), parlay for +243
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Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati Bearcats (3:30 p.m. ET Saturday)
(Cincinnati -22.5, O/U 50.5, FanDuel Sportsbook)
One of the largest moving lines this offseason was Miami at Cincinnati. Opening at -19, the Bearcats have seen this number grow to as much as 23.5. That’s a dangerous number even if the Bearcats are a legit contender to make the College Football Playoff.
Usually I’d go against the grain when so many points have already moved, but I still think we’re seeing value here. Miami had a pathetic offense in 2020, completing under 56% passing and averaging 3.8 yards per carry on the ground. Their defense was much better, but Cincinnati is a different monster than anyone they played last year.
Bearcats’ quarterback Desmond Ridder leads a terrific rushing attack and respectable passing game. But I don’t see them piling on the points even in a blowout win. I think this resembles Cincinnati’s 38-10 win against Houston last year.
Our bet: Cincinnati -22.5 (-110) and Under 50.5 (-112), parlay for +261
