NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
Week 4 brings us a close Monday Night Football matchup between the New York Giants and Seattle Seahawks. The Giants need a victory to avoid falling to last place, while Seattle tries to stay just one game behind San Francisco in the NFC West.
Here are my two favorite prop bets for tonight’s Monday Night matchups!
Monday Night Football Prop Bets
Isaiah Hodgins Over 2.5 Receptions
(+155, Bet365)
I always like to post a plus-money prop on Monday Night Football. Let’s start with Giants wideout Isaiah Hodgins’ over 2.5 receptions at +155 on Bet365.
Through the first three games, Seattle has allowed the most targets (34.7), receptions (24) and receiving yards (327) per game to opposing wide receivers. They also are allowing the most PPR fantasy points per game (72.3) to opposing wideouts, more than eight points higher than the 31st-ranked team, Indianapolis. Hodgins has seen the second-most snaps of any Giants wideout this season but was held without a reception in the Giants’ 30-12 loss at San Francisco in Week 3.
In a game with a 47-point total but just a two-point spread, Hodgins should see at least 4-5 targets, making this a good value play at +155. New York will again be without running back Saquon Barkley, which should equate to a higher passing rate against Seattle. Per our FTN Splits Tool, Hodgins has played in 13 games with a 40-point or higher total. In those games, he is averaging 3.6 receptions and 40.1 receiving yards. We project Hodgins for exactly 3.0 receptions, equating to a 16.8% edge on this number.
Zach Charbonnet Over 23.5 Rushing Yards
(-110, Bet365)
This is a bet on the growing usage trend for the rookie RB from UCLA. Zach Charbonnet was Seattle’s second-round pick in this year’s draft and has seen an increase in carries and rushing yards over the Seahawks’ first three games. He totaled nine carries for 46 rushing yards in the Week 3 victory over Carolina, more than triple his Week 1 totals in both categories.
Charbonnet faces a Giants defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, including the fourth-most rushing yards per game (117.7). The Giants have allowed two players to exceed this number in each of their first three games, including San Francisco backup RB Elijah Mitchell’s 42 yards last week.
After seeing just six fewer snaps than lead RB Kenneth Walker in Week 3, I’ll grab this rushing yardage prop at just 23.5 rushing yards on Bet365.
