NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
The FTN team uses the Week 6 fantasy football game-by-game to identify some of the key player props to bet on in this week’s Vikings/Dolphins game.
Minnesota (4-1) will look to earn its first true road win at Miami (3-2) Sunday at 1 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium. The Vikings have won three consecutive games, including last week’s 29-22 home win over Chicago. Miami will look to end a two-game losing streak and will turn to seventh-round rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson to lead the offense.
Miami Dolphins vs. Minnesota Vikings Player Prop Bets
Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
Tyreek Hill is sporting a 30.6% target share through five weeks, the fifth-highest rate in the league. He has a tremendous matchup this week, facing Cameron Dantzler, who is coughing up 0.34 fantasy points per coverage route so far this season, along with a 74% catch rate. He is allowing a reception every 7.3 coverage snaps, the 14th-worst rate among qualified defensive backs, while also allowing the eighth-most receptions in coverage (23). Miami continues to scheme touches for Hill, who has seen the fifth-most targets off screens so far this season with seven.
Pick: Tyreek Hill Over 5.5 Receptions
Miami head coach Mike McDaniel consistently schemes the ball into Tyreek Hill’s hands. Quarterback Skylar Thompson was thrown into the Jets game unexpectedly, but now had a full week of practice with the starters. Hill has a favorable matchup, against a Minnesota defense that is seventh worst against opposing No. 1 wideouts per FootballOutsiders. BetMGM is offering +115 on a number that Hill has easily crested in four of five games this season.
Irv Smith, TE, Minnesota Vikings
Irv Smith has now been over 60% of the snaps in each of the last two games, while running a route on 56-of-84 dropbacks during that span (66%). He is coming off a season-high 42 receiving yards and since Week 2, Smith is averaging nearly six targets per game, which is serviceable for a tight end. He remains an extremely viable streaming candidate this week, especially against a Miami defense that is allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (11.54).
Pick: Irv Smith Over 30.5 Receiving Yards
Irv Smith continues to see consistent targets, garnering 23 targets over the past four weeks. His 4.63 speed at 242 pounds is always a matchup problem, and Minnesota’s seventh-fastest second-half pace should guarantee plenty of chances. The Dolphins have allowed the fourth-most receptions (30) to opposing tight ends this season.
Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins
Raheem Mostert has emerged as the lead back for the Dolphins, averaging 16.5 carries per game over the last two weeks. During that span, Mostert has logged 70.5% of the offensive snaps, while Chase Edmonds has played just 21.5% of the snaps. Mostert was arguably Miami’s best player last week, rushing for 113 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries and per usual, the veteran has been efficient, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and over five yards per touch. Seven percent of Mostert’s carries have gone for 15-plus yards, as he obviously fits this zone-blocking scheme so well. Minnesota is allowing the sixth-most adjusted line yards off runs to the right tackle this season (5.87), while 25 of Mostert’s 57 rushing attempts have come off tackle this year. He is averaging 4.6 yards per carry on such runs.
Pick: Raheem Mostert Over 59.5 Rushing Yards
Raheem Mostert has secured the lead rushing position in this Miami offense, securing double-digit rushing attempts in three of Miami’s last four games. With a rookie QB under center, expect the Dolphins to lean more heavily on the 30-year-old veteran. Minnesota has allowed 137 rushing yards per game in their two contests away from home.
