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Today, Eric Pauly provides his picks.
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Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees
Guardians +1.5 -125 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Guardians stole Games 2 and 3 from the Yankees, and now they find themselves one win away from making the ALCS. Cleveland has manufactured runs all series long by walking, hitting singles and putting the ball in play. On the other hand, the Yankees rely too much on the long ball, and now they are in a hole.
After three games, it is pretty clear that the Guardians are on the Yankees’ level. This team can pitch, they get on base and they play excellent defense. The Yankees have gotten next to nothing from their top hitters, and their bullpen is also a liability.
If the Yankees lose today, they are done. They are putting their season in the hands of the man who won them Game 1 – Gerrit Cole. Cal Quantrill, who lost Game 1 of the series, will take the mound to exact revenge against the Yankees.
In Game 1 at Yankee Stadium, Cole went 6.1 innings, allowing one run on four hits and one walk with eight strikeouts. It was a dominant performance, and the Yankees won 4-1 on the heels of two home runs and a sacrifice fly.
In Quantrill’s case, he took the loss but pitched well. The righty went five innings, allowing three runs on four hits, three walks and five strikeouts, but the Guardians need more from him if they want to win. Quantrill needs to minimize baserunners so when the Yankees go yard, it won’t equate to a ton of runs.
At this point, the Guardians are the more confident team, and I trust them more than the Yankees. Cole needs to earn his pinstripes tonight and bring this game back to the Bronx for Game 5. I have no doubt he can do it, but I doubt the Yankees’ ability to win by two or more runs.
Bet: Guardians +1.5 -125 (FanDuel Sportsbook)