Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
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Today, Eric Pauly provides his picks.
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Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers RL +1.5 -155 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
In the battle of the two best teams in the National League Tuesday, the Dodgers got the best of the Mets in a 4-3 victory at Citi Field. The Dodgers now lead the season series 3-2 with just two more games remaining. As a fan, I’d love to see these teams go head-to-head in the postseason.
Speaking of the playoffs, the Mets hold just a three-game lead in the NL East with a little over a month to go, meaning it is certainly not a lock that the Mets take home the division. New York is 5-5 in their last 10 games and have been struggling offensively during this stretch.
The Mets struggle against left-handed pitching, and they scored just two runs off of the Dodgers lefty starter Andrew Heaney Tuesday. Wednesday, they need to face another lefty, Tyler Anderson, who has been quite impressive all season long.
In 22 starts this season, Anderson is 13-2 with a 2.89 ERA, a 3.26 FIP, and a 1.02 WHIP. Anderson faced the Mets June 3 and allowed no runs on three hits in six innings of work in a Dodgers win. In his last two starts, Anderson has allowed just two earned runs and eight hits over 12.1 innings.
When pitching on the road this season, Anderson has seen his numbers rise slightly. His ERA goes up to 3.17, his slugging percentage against is .379, his FIP is 3.49, his WHIP is 1.14, and he only leaves 74.4% of runners on base. The Dodgers are 9-4 in Anderson’s road starts this season.
The Dodgers are 24-6 in their last 30 games. As a team in the month of August, the Dodgers have the second-best OPS in the majors, they have scored the second-most runs, they have the second-highest batting average, and they have the second-most hits.
The amazing Jacob deGrom will be on the mound for the Mets. In five starts since coming back from the IL, deGrom is 3-1 with a 2.15 ERA, a 1.08 FIP, and a staggering .55 WHIP. His only rough outing was Aug. 18 against the Braves where he let up three runs on five hits in 6.2 innings of work. In 17.2 innings at home this season, deGrom has a 1.53 ERA, a .102 batting average against, a 1.43 FIP, and a .45 WHIP.
DeGrom is arguably the best pitcher in the game, and what he has done in limited starts this season is mind-boggling. However, the Mets are just 3-2 in games he has started and have covered the run line as a favorite just one time in his five starts. Throughout deGrom’s career, the Mets have been unable to provide him enough run support, and it looks like that theme is carrying over to this season.
Backing the Dodgers has almost nothing to do with deGrom and everything to do with the Mets’ struggling line up. Against a team like the Dodgers, if the Mets do not pile up runs, which will be tough for them facing a lefty, it is hard to see New York winning this game by two or more runs.
The juice is heavy, but I cannot pass up on the best team in baseball getting 1.5 runs, even if it is against the great Jacob deGrom. I have this game priced at Dodgers +1.5 -177, so at +1.5 -155 there is value.
Bet: Dodgers RL +1.5 -155 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
