College Football Week 1 Betting Odds, Picks, and Trends

Another season of college football is upon us, and in addition to covering DFS as well as PrizePicks, I will be releasing a weekly betting article. The purpose of this writeup is to highlight some of my favorite college football games to bet on, my reasoning for picking said game and directing you to the site with the softest line.

Let’s take a look below at my favorite spots to attack for Week 1.

West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Pittsburgh Panthers

(7 p.m. ET Thursday)
(Pittsburgh -7.5, 52 O/U, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Backyard Brawl returns after a decade-long hiatus, and needless to say there is a tremendous amount of hype surrounding this 127-year-old rivalry. The Panthers are the defending ACC champs, while the Mountaineers are looking to remove the bad taste of last year.

Pittsburgh has retooled after losing Jordan Addison to USC but will be aided by the additions of QB Kedon Slovis (USC transfer) and WR Konata Mumpfield (Akron transfer). Ironically, the Mountaineers will also be turning to a former USC QB in JT Daniels after he decided to move on from Georgia.

Pittsburgh leads the all-time series 61-40-3. The fact that they’ll be at home and were so successful last season has led to this 7.5-point spread but West Virginia is going to be a lot better than people realize. Daniels will be protected by an offensive line that returns all five starters from last year. In addition, Daniels’ former OC in 2019 at USC, Graham Harrell, was brought aboard to ease the transition and turn the program around. Furthermore, there is a talented group of pass-catchers with plenty of experience surrounding Daniels so he can absolutely keep the Mountaineers in this game to the very end. Pittsburgh’s secondary ranked 119th last season after giving up almost 280 yards per game to their opponents.

Taking the team getting more than a touchdown in a rivalry game feels extremely favorable to me and I’m confidently going to roll with the Mountaineers in this spot.

Betting Trends

West Virginia was 2-0 against the spread last year in games in which they were underdogs by 7.5 points or more.
When listed as the favorite by 7.5 or more points, Pittsburgh finished with a record of 4-3.

Best Bet

West Virginia +7.5

Western Michigan Broncos vs. Michigan State Spartans

(7 p.m. ET Friday)
(Michigan State -23, 54.5 O/U, DraftKings Sportsbook)

These two teams have played 16 times, with their history against each other going back to the early 1900s. Their last meeting was back in 2019, when the Spartans lambasted the Broncos by a score of 51-17.

Even though the Spartans lost a total cyborg at RB, they’re still expected to be strong at the position. The reason for this is the fact that they brought in not one but two transfers with veteran experience. Jalen Berger (Wisconsin transfer) and Jarek Broussard (Colorado transfer) are both capable runners who will force opposing defenses to be honest against the rushing attack. They’re returning a QB in Payton Thorne who threw for over 3,000 yards a season ago while also sporting a TD-INT ratio of 27-10. Two of his favorite weapons return as well in Jayden Reed and Tre Mosley. This offense will still be making some noise this year even though many have written them off without Ken Walker.

The Broncos return some studs of their own in the RB tandem of Sean Tyler and La’Darius Jefferson. Unfortunately, they’ll be without program mainstays Kaleb Eleby and Skyy Moore, both of whom moved onto the next stage of their career. Defenses will likely just key in on the running game until the passing attack can prove itself capable without Eleby or Moore. Even worse, the Broncos return fewer than five players from last year’s offense altogether. The Spartans should roll here, which means not only winning at home but covering the 23 as well.

Betting Trends

Michigan State was 9-3-1 against the spread last season.
Western Michigan covered the spread in six of their 13 games a year ago but were never underdogs by 23 or more points.

Best Bet

Michigan State -23

Houston Cougars vs. UTSA Roadrunners

(3:30 p.m. ET Saturday)
(Houston -4, 62 O/U, DraftKings Sportsbook)

This is a game I’ll be looking forward to for DFS purposes, but I also have it near the top of my list in terms of watchability. Houston is getting a lot of hype as this year’s version of the Cincinnati Bearcats, and they do have a shot to sneak into the playoffs if things break the right way for them throughout the season. Despite losing an important piece to a season-ending injury earlier this summer in Alton McCaskill the team still possesses an embarrassment of riches throughout the skill positions. QB Clayton Tune, RB Ta’Zhawn Henry and star wideout Nathaniel Dell are a formidable trio. That’s not all they have though as one of Tune’s favorite targets TE Christian Trahan returns and true freshman receiver Matthew Golden has been hyped to the moon after a breakout summer camp.

The Roadrunners lost all-world RB Sincere McCormick after he decided to move on from the college ranks but they have plenty of remaining talent and are similar to Houston in that regard. QB Frank Harris, Arkansas transfer RB Trelon Smith and the senior trio of De’Corian Clark/Zakhari Franklin/Josh Cephus should keep this team plenty competitive. Revenge narrative alert in Houston transfer wideout Tre’Von Bradley being with UTSA now.

This game should be a back-and-forth affair with both teams putting up points. However, the 4-point spread is just begging for us to take Houston as I think their fluidity on offense ultimately carries them to a win by 6 or more points. Clayton Tune gets his chance to show off his maturation and keep the early season talk of Houston’s playoff chances alive for another week.