The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (9/7)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats are from the last 30 days via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees betting breakdown

Blue Jays (+172), Yankees (-205)
Total: 9.0 runs
Steven Matz (L) vs. Gerrit Cole (R)

Three things to know

• The Yankees need to wake up at the plate – their .183 ISO and 25.7% whiff rate is ugly over the last month.
• The Jays are straight cooking — they’ve logged a .338 wOBA over the same time frame.
• Gerrit Cole has been nasty — can he keep it up?

Best bets: Monday we took the underdog Jays at home — I wouldn’t get on two in a row.

Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles betting breakdown

Royals (-108), Orioles (-108)
Total: 10.0 runs
Jackson Kowar (R) vs. Alexander Wells (L)

Three things to know

• The Orioles have been mediocre in the last month with a 24.6% strikeout rate and .316 wOBA.
• The Royals sport a league-worst .129 ISO over that same time frame.
• Camden Yards ranks in the top-five in home run factor and park factor.

Best bets: As indicated by the Vegas line, this is a total guess. It may be a stay away for me.

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox betting breakdown

Rays (-110), Red Sox (-106)
Total: 9.5 runs
Drew Rasmussen (R) vs. Eduardo Rodríguez (L)

Three things to know

• The Rays are the league’s best offense — they’ve slammed the ball for a .220 ISO and .347 wOBA.
• The Sox? Not too far behind. They have a .215 ISO and a league-best .364 wOBA.
• Can the Red Sox respond after Monday’s meltdown?

Best bets: There’s some bad juju going on in Boston — go with the Rays.

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Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves betting breakdown

Nationals (+200), Braves (-245)
Total: 9.5 runs
Paolo Espino (R) vs. Max Fried (L)

Three things to know

• The Braves have been a top-five offense in the last month — can they keep it up?
• The Nats don’t whiff much (21.2% strikeout rate), but this is a bad offense (.155 ISO).
• Paolo Espino has allowed 2.47 HR/9 to same-sided righties.

Best bets: A F3/F5 Braves bet and an Austin Riley homer seem juicy.

Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers betting breakdown

Phillies (-112), Brewers (-104)

Total: 8.0 runs
Aaron Nola (R) vs. Eric Lauer (L)

Three things to know

• These are two middling offenses — can either one score off these aces?
• The Phillies rank 13th in ISO (.185), but have struggled in wOBA (.313).
• The Brewers rank 17th in ISO (.167), but have been better in team wOBA (.331).

Best bets: The UNDER hit Monday, and I like it again here with two struggling attacks.

San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies betting breakdown

Giants (-220), Rockies (+184)
Total: 11.5 runs
Logan Webb (R) vs. Chi Chi González (R)

Three things to know

• The Rockies have been nasty at the plate, logging a .193 ISO and .314 wOBA in the last month.
• The Giants have screeched to a halt on offense, ranking 19th in the same wOBA metric.
• The Giants have been playing fine in their recent run (9-7 in L16), but the Dodgers have narrowed the division gap to one game.

Best bets: Never doubt Coors. The OVER was smoked Monday, and I expect it two days in a row.

Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks betting breakdown

Rangers (+134), Diamondbacks (-158)
Total: 8.0 runs
Sam Howard (R) vs. Zac Gallen (R)

Three things to know

• Arizona ranks eighth worst in team strikeout rate in the last month (24.4%).
• As an offense overall, the DBacks haven’t been any great shakes either, with a .163 ISO and .315 wOBA.
• The Rangers? Also putrid on offense, scoring a .154 ISO and .308 wOBA.

Best bets: Gallen has been better than people realize. Take the Snakes in a F3/F5.

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Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros betting breakdown

Mariners (+142), Astros (-168)
Total: 8.5 runs
Logan Gilbert (R) vs. Jake Odorizzi (R)

Three things to know

• The Mariners are back to struggle mode — they’ve logged only a .302 wOBA in the last 30 days.
• The Astros have been back to boppin — their .334 wOBA is one of the league’s top marks.
• The Astros are now controlling the whiffs — an 18.3% strikeout rate is a really tough mark.

Best bets: I actually like the road Mariners here — Gilbert has been excellent recently.

Chicago White Sox at Oakland Athletics betting breakdown

White Sox (+112), Athletics (-132)
Total: 9.0 runs
Jimmy Lambert (R) vs. James Kaprielian (R)

Three things to know

• The Sox have been scorching at the plate, recording a .182 ISO and .342 wOBA.
• The A’s are in a free fall, and their offense is trying to keep them alive with a .184 ISO mark.
• James Kaprielian has struggled recently, posting a 5.68 ERA in the last month.

Best bets: Like the Red Sox, the Athletics seem to be actively trying to play their way out of the playoffs. Take the juice with the White Sox.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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