The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (6/16)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek and let us know what your thoughts are around our new daily piece.

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

Yankees (-164), Blue Jays (+138)
Total: 8.5 runs
Gerrit Cole (R) vs. Ross Stripling (R)

With all the noise around declining spin rates and Spider Tack, Gerrit Cole will definitely be under the microscope and will face perhaps one of his stiffest tests of the season. The Yankees pulled out a 6-5 nailbiter Tuesday night. Cole has posted a 36.7% strikeout rate this season, and did showcase increased velocity last time out — however, with the recent pounding by opposing pitchers, this will be intriguing.

Best bets: The OVER. I know how great Cole is, but this seems like the market inefficiency.

Chicago Cubs at New York Mets

Cubs (+265), Mets (-330)
Total: 8.5 runs
Robert Stock (R) vs. Jacob deGrom (R)

This is the widest split in terms of favorite to underdog that we have on Wednesday’s main slate. DeGrom returns to the hill, and after dazzling opposing hitters for six scoreless innings last time out, the lore of the righty only continues to build. Can he do it again? All signs point to yes, although the consistent injury risk is terrifying, both from a DFS and season long perspective. The unsung hero is that the Mets offense is starting to round into shape.

Best bets: With Robert Stock getting called up thanks to the Adbert Alzolay injury, slam the Mets here. F5, moneyline, home run props, all of them work.

Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Indians

Orioles (+140), Indians (-166)
Total: 8.0 runs
Keegan Akin (L) vs. Aaron Civale (R)

This one played out almost exactly as we anticipated Tuesday — the Indians slammed Matt Harvey and cruised to an easy 7-2 victory. Wednesday, Keegan Akin will provide a far stiffer challenge. The rookie southpaw has been quietly brilliant with a 3.99 FIP spanning 24 innings pitched. The real question is which Aaron Civale tabs the slab? The one that spun eight scoreless innings in his last start, or the one with the second-lowest qualified strikeout rate in baseball?

Best bets: These are two average-to-below offenses, at best. I think the over/under is appropriately set, but if I was to bet one, it would be the UNDER.

Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves

Red Sox (+136), Braves (-162)
Total: 9.5 runs
Garrett Richards (R) vs. Ian Anderson (R)

A day after an 18-run contest (a close Boston victory), should we expect more of the same? Here is what I think many teams are unaware of — this park is playing like a damn bandbox. SunTrust Field clocks in at ninth both in terms of park factor and home run factor in 2021, and while you can certainly attribute some of that juice to the excellent Braves attack, it can’t only be one sided. One start after facing a tough Blue Jays attack, Garrett Richards receives the unenviable task of facing a really good Atlanta team.

Best bets: I’m slamming the OVER here in a big way.

Texas Rangers at Houston Astros

Rangers (+198), Astros (-240)
Total: 9.0 runs
Jordan Lyles (R) vs. Zack Greinke (R)

A day after seeing a low-scoring affair, thanks to this season’s greatness of Kyle Gibson, these offenses are likely to explode in an offense showdown. Finally, many have wondered if the wheels are going to fall off Zack Greinke’s career, and now may be the time. Most are aware of Greinke’s diminishing fastball velocity (in 2021, it sits at only 89.0 MPH), but it’s the other peripherals that have truly betrayed him — a career-worst 19.0% strikeout rate offset by an 11.7% walk rate. Puke.

Best bets: I like the OVER here. These are two pitchers not throwing the baseball really well, and I’d expect the opposite of Tuesday.

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants

Diamondbacks (+144), Giants (-172)
Total: 8.0 runs
Merrill Kelly (R) vs. Anthony DeSclafani (R)

The Diamondbacks being 9-29 on the road is pretty obviously abysmal. But what if I told you they had lost 21 straight on the road? That’s not a typo, so a 9-8 record to start the season was pretty good! After scoring seven runs to start Tuesday’s game, they mounted yet another epic collapse to lose and continue this streak. And with a decided disadvantage on the mound, I’d expect it to be 22 straight soon.

Best bets: Until the Snakes prove me wrong, I am gonna keep riding with F5 and moneyline bets against them.

Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers

Phillies (+128), Dodgers (-152)
Total: 7.0 runs
Zack Wheeler (R) vs. Clayton Kershaw (L)

The Dodgers are massive favorites in nearly every contest, so when you see them listed “only” as -152 favorites, you wonder why. Peep the brilliance of Zack Wheeler, who the Mets and their fan base can’t be thrilled that they let go. Over 90.1 innings pitched this season, the veteran right-hander has logged a 2.39 FIP (oh baby) and a 32.4% strikeout rate this season. He will be tested to the max here, but the dude has been that good.

Best bets: This was a tight, low-scoring affair Tuesday, and I’d expect more of the same here. Bet the UNDER.

Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners

Twins (-138), Mariners (+118)
Total: 8.5 runs
Bailey Ober (R) vs. Justus Sheffield (L)

It’s kind of sad watching the Twins play — a team with tons of talent kind of just seems to roll over and play dead, like Tuesday in a 10-0 shellacking at the hands of the Mariners. And it’s interesting that, while Jarred Kelenic was expected to provide a major shot in the arm for this offense, it’s been markedly better since he was sent back to the minors. Justus Sheffield takes the baseball for Seattle, and he really needs to improve his past form — his 5.05 FIP belies that the dude really isn’t tossing that well — a 9.0% walk rate certainly doesn’t help matters.

Best bets: The Twins may be the first team to sell off at the deadline. Slam a F5 and/or moneyline bet on the Mariners.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)