Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Knowing what to bet on is an important aspect of being a profitable bettor. Know when to bet on it is even more important for long term profitability. One advancement that online gaming has pushed forward in the gambling world is the ability to in-game bet.
Brick-and-mortar casinos have a limitation on this as they would need to constantly post and repost lines on a board and take bets on them. By the time someone reached the front of the line, the number they wanted to bet likely moved in one direction or the other. In-game betting at a live casino is tough to do and not a major source of income for books, if they even offer it at all.
Online platforms are a whole different animal, though. They do have the ability to update spreads and totals in real time and the ability to deliver those numbers to potential bettors in real time. The ability to do this has led to an explosion of in-game betting. A savvy bettor can use this to his advantage. Here is how:
Every time you open the Tipico Sportsbook app, you will see a ton of wagering opportunities. If you happen to be on the app before a game starts, you will see the typical spread, total and moneyline options available to bet. You may like a team being offered, but not be a big fan of the price. You might think that team A is going to win, but you may also think fair value on a bet is -150 and the current pregame odds are -200. Sure, you still want to bet on Team A, but you wished you could get a better price.
This is where in-game betting may be able to help you out. In-game betting works differently in every sport. In a sport like basketball especially, we tend to have multiple runs in a game where one team goes up by a few points and the other team has to storm back to tie a game or take a lead. We see this often in the NBA. As the score starts to move, the spread, total and moneylines will move as well. If Team A was -200 to win a game but comes out flat and goes down 10-3 in the first four minutes, the numbers a book offers will adjust to the new reality. Before the game started the best price you could take a bet out may be -200, but once the game is going you may get an opportunity to take the bet you wanted at a discounted price. Down 10-3, Team A may now be paying -150 or even -120 on the moneyline to win the game. What you effectively did is waited to get the price you wanted on the team you would have bet on anyway at a much less favorable payout. Sometimes it works out where you get that chance, but remember if your team was -200 and they go up 10-3 to start the game you also could be stuck having to take -250 or -300. It is definitely a gamble, but one that is worth taking if you want to try to get the price where a bet makes sense.
In-game betting opportunities are probably the greatest in the NBA, because basketball games tend to have more lead changes than other major sports. Baseball and football will have some too, but those are more event-driven sports with lower final scores. That means the chances for in-game bets to hit are lower in those sports than they are in basketball. That doesn’t mean good opportunities don’t exist, but they are fewer and farther between. If you are going to use this strategy, make sure you have a clear set of rules guiding you. The first thing I would want to guide me is a number. If you think -200 before the game started was too high, then you should have a number where you would be willing to actually lay down a wager. Maybe that is -150, maybe it’s -125. Whatever the number is, know it and be disciplined enough to wait for it to hit. The second thing I want everyone to understand is the timing of the bet. There’s a big difference between taking this chance in the first quarter or inning of a game when things start off slow or poorly for the team you like vs. taking this same chance in the seventh or eighth inning of a game, or the third or fourth quarter.
Remember, in order to get that better price, the team you wanted to bet on probably had a slow start and are losing in order to lower the price. The final thing you want to take into consideration is any material changes to the makeup of the game. In basketball, that could mean an injury or foul trouble to a key player. In baseball, it could mean that the starting pitcher was pulled early. In football it could be the loss of a quarterback. Any of these examples would materially change your analysis and the price you should be willing to take. If you are in-game betting, make sure you know the situation. The loss of a key piece could drastically change the number you would be willing to take a bet at, so make sure you are watching the game so you know whether or not it is worth pulling the trigger.
The explosion of in-game betting at online sportsbooks creates opportunities for bettors. You now have a chance to wait for a better number if you think the price is too short to bet on pregame. Sometimes the team you wanted to bet on starts off hot and you never get the chance to make that bet at a better price. That is the risk you have to be willing to take. If you thought the pre-flop price was too short to take anyway, then do not look at missing out on that number as a lost opportunity. You might not always get the chance to take a better number, but if you have a solid game plan and stick to the number that you want to get, you are going to be surprised how often you get an opportunity to bet that number at some point in the game. Like anything in life, there is risk, but with risk also comes some incredibly profitable potential opportunities.
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