NBA first look: Game-by-game DFS breakdown for Feb. 21

The NBA has a seven-game main DFS slate Sunday with a nice mix of games. Some present high totals and fast-paced environments, while others could be played at a much, much slower pace, offering less appeal for fantasy.

Let’s break it all down and find the best and worst plays.

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Oklahoma City Thunder @ Cleveland Cavaliers

OKC -2, total: 217

This Cavaliers defense has fallen off a cliff lately. After starting off the season strong, Cleveland can’t stop a nosebleed right now, surrendering 120 points or more in eight of the last 10 games. During that same span, the Cavs rank 30th in defensive rating and just let Jamal Murray score 50 points without even attempting a single free throw. And while they aren’t playing at a crazy pace, the Thunder are quietly playing pretty fast this season, ranking ninth in the NBA in pace for the year, though they rank sixth in that department over their last 10 games. Considering all that, I really like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander here, especially coming off a down game. This is still a player with a 28% usage rate and 19% assist rate on the season, while averaging 1.19 fantasy points per minute. He is also averaging 7.4 minutes of possession per game on the year, the fifth-highest rate in basketball, so the ball is clearly in his hands a lot. And again, this is no longer a weak matchup, as the Cavaliers are coughing up the fourth-most points per possession to opposing pick and roll ball handlers (0.96), as well as the second-worst field goal percentage (46.8%). SGA, meanwhile, is averaging 9.9 points per game out of the pick and roll, the sixth-most in the league.

As for the rest of the Thunder, it isn’t as exciting since this team is pretty much back at full strength. I don’t think I can trust Hamidou Diallo at $5,700 on DraftKings, especially coming off the bench. Darius Bazley is still fairly affordable but he’s coming off a game where he only played 21 minutes and failed to see the floor in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, Al Horford’s production has come down with the Thunder getting healthier, while he’s still not playing more than 28 or 29 minutes each night. If I were to look elsewhere from this team, I’d consider Theo Maledon at $4,500. He’s been starting with George Hill out and is in a good enough spot here.

For Cleveland, we know that Andre Drummond will remain out of the lineup, as the team attempts to trade him. Jarrett Allen is sporting a 21.2% usage rate over the last two weeks with Drummond off the floor this season, while also posting a massive 36% rebounding rate and averaging 1.23 fantasy points per minute during that span. At $7,100, some people might be off Allen, but he’s such an efficient player and this isn’t a daunting matchup, as the Thunder are coughing up the fourth-most post-up points per game this season (7.1), while Allen’s 3.0 putback points per game on the year are tied for the fourth-most in the league. Cedi Osman, meanwhile, has been very productive as of late, scoring 28, 38 and 32 fantasy points over his last three outings. He’s been in the starting lineup with the Cavs so short-handed and is averaging 1.07 fantasy points per minute with Drummond, Kevin Love, Larry Nance and Taurean Prince off the floor this season.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ New York Knicks

NY -2.5, total: 217

I’m still not sure if Anthony Edwards has come down from dunking Yuta Watanabe into another dimension the other night, but hopefully the rookie can find his shot again, as Edwards is just 6-for-29 from the field over the last two games. Still, the peripherals have been much better, as he’s been playing more power forward as of late, while the minutes should be anywhere between 34 and 38. This is not a good matchup at all, as New York plays at the slowest pace in the NBA and ranks fourth in defensive rating, however, Edwards is under $6,000 on DraftKings and is still sporting a strong 27% usage rate with D'Angelo Russell off the floor this season. Outside of Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns is still worth a look at $9,500 and he’ll be very overlooked on this slate and in this matchup. Minnesota is unsurprisingly playing through Towns, who is averaging nearly nine post-ups per game over his last five outings, the fifth-most in basketball during that time frame. New York plays strong defense, but the Knicks do allow the eighth-highest field goal percentage to the post (51.8%) while also allowing the most blocks per game to opposing centers (3.19).

Julius Randle has really been the only Knick I have targeted as of late. Tom Thibodeau is using Elfrid Payton, Derrick Rose and Immanuel Quickley each for 20-23 minutes, making it tough to get excited about the backcourt. Meanwhile, RJ Barrett has shown very little of a ceiling in fantasy and Randle is still playing huge minutes and dominating the usage, touches and rebounds. Minnesota is a poor defense that is allowing the sixth-most points per game to the post this season (6.5).

Detroit Pistons @ Orlando Magic

ORL -2, total: 209.5

The Magic are getting a little healthier but will still be without Aaron Gordon and Cole Anthony, while Markelle Fultz is obviously out for the remainder of the season. Evan Fournier returned to the lineup two games ago and has been strong, especially in his last game when he scored 28 points to go along with four rebounds and six assists. We’ve seen his assist rate climb with just Gordon off the floor this season, while his usage rate with Gordon and both guards off the floor is hovering around the 26% mark. I feel better about playing him at $6,300 than Terrence Ross at an elevated $6,800 tag on DraftKings, especially against a Pistons team that is surrendering the fourth-most points per possession (1.02) and highest field goal percentage (49.3%) in all of basketball against handoffs. That bodes well for Fournier, whose 2.3 such points per game are good for the seventh-most in the league. Meanwhile, I think the $5,500 price tag for Michael Carter-Williams is a bit too high for me, despite the fact that over the last four games, he is fourth among qualified players in average seconds per touch (6.08). Of course, the obvious play from this team is Nikola Vucevic, who is carrying this Orlando unit right now. He is coming off a 30-point triple-double and over the last two weeks, Vucevic is sporting a 30.3% usage rate to go along with a 36% rebounding rate and nearly 1.50 fantasy points per minute. His price has come up to $10,300 but he still has upside at that price, especially in a solid matchup against the Pistons.

Orlando isn’t the only team missing guards, however. Delon Wright is listed as doubtful for the Pistons with a groin injury. Dennis Smith (remember him?) logged a season-high 23 minutes after Wright exited last game and is a candidate to start this game. I’d expect him to start over Saben Lee, who hasn’t even been part of the rotation as of late. At $4,000 on DraftKings, Smith has to be worth a look as a solid value option, especially since he’s been a fairly high-usage player over the course of his career. I also think Jerami Grant is in play at his price, but the Magic are still playing incredibly slow, especially with Vucevic posting up even more, so Grant isn’t a priority or anything on this slate.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors

PHI -3, total: 224

Is Joel Embiid good at basketball? Because 50 points, 17 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 blocks and 2 steals sure seem pretty good. Philadelphia’s center has arguably been the MVP this season and is seemingly in play every single slate. Embiid used to struggle in this matchup, but that was because of Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka, who obviously no longer play for the Raptors. Instead, Toronto will ask Aron Baynes and Chris Boucher to slow him down, which won’t end well. Embiid went for 62.5 fantasy points the first time these teams met, and there is nothing to suggest that he can’t do it again Sunday night. Ben Simmons has missed the last two games with an illness and although he is probable, he was also probable ahead of the last game and sat out. Keep an eye on his status, but if he’s active, it takes me off of Tobias Harris at an extremely elevated $8,600 price tag on DraftKings. The combination of the 76ers being at full strength (Shake Milton is also probable) and all their players either being priced right or up has me really only heavily interested in Embiid here.

For Toronto, Kyle Lowry has missed the last two games and is on pace to miss his third in a row, as he’s listed as doubtful. Over the last two games with Lowry out of the lineup, Fred VanVleet is averaging an awesome 97.5 touches per game, up from his season average of 81.7. And with Lowry off the floor this season, VanVleet is sporting a solid 27.4% usage rate and 19% assist rate, while averaging 1.19 fantasy points per minute. The matchup isn’t the best in the world, especially if Simmons is active, but VanVleet would still have a high floor with plenty of upside, as we’ve seen this season. He also leads this team in points per game off screens, and the Raptors should continue to set plenty of screens for FVV without Lowry. The 76ers, meanwhile, are coughing up a league-leading 6.4 points per game off screens this season. Pascal Siakam is also perfectly in play at under $8,000, as he’s averaging 1.12 fantasy points per minute with Lowry off the floor. We know that the Raptors starters are going to play huge minutes in close games, especially Siakam and VanVleet. Norman Powell, meanwhile, has been fantastic in Lowry’s absence over the last two games, scoring 29 and 31 real points during that span. He probably has the best individual matchup of anyone on this Raptors team and is currently locked into huge minutes right now. Finally, Chris Boucher has potential but is terrifying here. At just 6-foot-9, the Raptors probably won’t want to run him out there for 25-30 minutes against Embiid, as he’s drawing a foul on around 21% of his field goal attempts.

Denver Nuggets @ Atlanta Hawks

DEN -2.5, total: 231.5

Jamal Murray is on fire right now, especially after coming off a historic 50-point game. Murray is now averaging 27.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 45.6 fantasy points per game over his last six outings and while the price has skyrocketed, I’ve stated before that he is a player that you want to have exposure to when he’s on a hot streak like this. Denver will still be missing some players for this game and a matchup against the Hawks is certainly nothing to fear, as Atlanta ranks 25th against primary ball handlers and 23rd against scorers, per our advanced DVP. Of course, Nikola Jokic is always in play, especially in a pace-up spot against the Hawks. He still leads the NBA in touches per game for the season (102.0), while Atlanta ranks 28th against skilled centers and 27th against point forwards. The question is who else from this team can you look to? Gary Harris returned earlier in the week but won’t play in this game, while P.J. Dozier and Paul Millsap are both also out. Monte Morris is back and is a viable play at $4,700, though Facundo Campazzo has earned more minutes as of late and should still play 25 or so at just over $4,000. I also have some GPP interest in Michael Porter, who has logged 30-plus minutes in consecutive games. We know this Denver offense runs through Murray and Jokic with the dribble handoff, but Porter is a high-usage player who will isolate plenty. That could bode well for him here, facing a Hawks defense that is coughing up 7.7 points per game off isolation this season, third-most in basketball.

Speaking of the Hawks, Trae Young is a very strong option here. He seemingly scores 50 fantasy points every night and is still very affordable across the industry. While he certainly does a lot of damage from beyond the arc, Young also attacks the rim quite a bit, averaging the third-most drives per game in all of basketball (20.0). That could suit him well here, as Denver is surrendering a 69.6% field goal percentage at the rim, the worst rate in the league. Meanwhile, John Collins is coming off an awful game, but a $6,500 price tag is arguably the lowest we have seen all season long for him, while facing Porter is definitely a good matchup. After posting three 20-point double-doubles over his last four games, Clint Capela’s price tag is back up to $8,000 on DraftKings but I still have interest in him here. 81% of his field goal attempts this season have come from within four feet of the basket, while his 23.0 rebounding chances per game trail only Rudy Gobert of the Jazz.

Brooklyn Nets @ Los Angeles Clippers

LAC -6, total: 236

Kevin Durant isn’t quite ready to return for the Nets, meaning he’ll be out for this matchup. That means we’ll continue to see James Harden and Kyrie Irving dominate the usage for Brooklyn, particularly Harden, who is averaging 91.1 touches per game over his last 10 contests, seventh-most in the league during that span. Playing the true point guard position again, Harden has recorded at least 10 assists in nine of his last 10 games and projects as a fantastic play once again here. Kyrie, meanwhile, has been a bit more inconsistent as of late because he’s playing more off the ball. However, an $8,700 price tag without Durant is very enticing, and he’s absolutely in play here.

This game is very easy to dissect. All four superstars that are active are strong plays, with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George back for the Clippers. For the season, Leonard is sitting at a 30.7% usage rate and 1.33 fantasy points per minute, while George is right behind him, sporting a 28.9% usage rate and 1.29 fantasy points per minute. Brooklyn doesn’t have anyone capable of defending these two for an entire game, while they are also allowing the fifth-most points per game off isolation this season (7.4). Leonard is sporting the league’s sixth-highest frequency rate off isolations (18.2%).

Sacramento Kings @ Milwaukee Bucks

MIL -10.5, total: 237

Giannis Antetokounmpo is probably the best play of the slate here. He’s been ridiculous of late, averaging over 68 fantasy points per game over his last six outings. This game should be played at a pretty fast pace and the Kings struggle to defend the area where Giannis is at his best — transition. Sacramento is coughing up the most points per possession in transition in all of basketball (1.30), as well as the highest field goal percentage (61.1%) and fifth-most points per game (21.3) off the play type. Giannis, meanwhile, leads the NBA in transition points per game for the season (8.9), sporting a near 30% frequency rate off the play type. Khris Middleton, meanwhile, has been very underwhelming lately, but bounced back a little bit last game, scoring 20 points to go along with eight rebounds and four assists. I’m going right back to him again here, especially against a Kings team that ranks dead last against both dimers and scorers, while also ranking 29th against primary ball handlers. Keep an eye on the starting lineup here, as the Bucks moved D.J. Augustin into the starting role ahead of Bryn Forbes. Augustin played 32 minutes and if he starts again, he’d be worth a look as a value play at $3,800 on DraftKings.

For the Kings, De'Aaron Fox has been under 40 fantasy points in each of his last three games but I love him here, especially under $8,000. Milwaukee is still playing very fast and that bodes well for Fox, who is fourth in the NBA in transition points per contest (5.8). And with Jrue Holiday still out for Milwaukee, the matchup is definitely better for Fox. We’ll see if both Harrison Barnes and Richuan Holmes can return to the lineup, though both did sit out on Saturday. If they return, the only other player from this team I have slight interest in is Buddy Hield, as 38.5% of the points scored against the Bucks this season have come from beyond the arc, the fourth-highest rate in the league. If Holmes and/or Barnes sit, Marvin Bagley would be worth a look, but only in tournaments, as they could go back to giving Nemanja Bjelica more run.