Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
After a successful seven-game Sunday slate that saw FTN’s own David Jones ship the $100k on FanDuel for the second time in a week, we turn our attention to a healthy nine-game NBA DFS slate for Monday, where a handful of teams are coming into the slate on the second leg of a back-to-back.
Being two weeks into the season, 2020-21 stats will be the default metrics of choice moving forward, unless something extremely eye-popping from last season comes to light that still carries relevance in the context of the day’s particular game.
Vegas Odds derived from DraftKings SportsBook.
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Cleveland Cavaliers @ Orlando Magic (-4.5)
Pace: CLE (23rd), ORL (7th)
Defensive Efficiency: CLE (2nd), ORL (T12)
Darius Garland, arguably the Cavs' best player this season, is questionable with a shoulder strain. This makes Collin Sexton an elite play if Garland ends up missing the game, as he sees a 27.1% usage rate in that scenario this season. That would also potentially open up more usage for Andre Drummond, who already sports a rate over 31% with Kevin Love off the court.
In terms of value, this would also add a heap of minutes to the plate of Dante Exum, who saw 34 last game. Given his lack of per-minute production, he doesn’t have tournament-winning upside, but he’s a fine value filler in cash games.
For the Magic, there isn’t a ton to target here aside from the usual suspects in Nikola Vucevic, Markelle Fultz and Terrence Ross. If Evan Fournier remains out, all three should see a bump in usage and volume. That would also lead to more opportunities for Cole Anthony and Michael Carter-Williams, with the latter being the preferred cash game option given his peripheral ceiling.
Charlotte Hornets @ Philadelphia 76ers (-9.5) – 219.5 total
Pace: CHA (11th), PHI (T12th)
Defensive Efficiency: CHA (14th), PHI (1st)
After we saw this same matchup a few days ago in which just about every prominent player on the 76ers had a good game, Vegas is expecting much of the same based on the implied spread. Joel Embiid should once again dominate this weak interior and comes in under $10,000 on DraftKings, making him my favorite stud on the slate. If you want to pair anyone from Philly with Embiid, Seth Curry has been outperforming his price on a consistent basis and is getting enough volume, even in blowouts, to warrant consideration. Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons are great tournament plays, but it’s still rare to see all of them hit ceiling games in the same game.
As for Charlotte, it’s hard to feel confident targeting them in this matchup against the number one defense in the NBA and a team that just blew them out. If anyone is worth it, however, it’s LaMelo Ball. James Borrego noted that there would be some shuffling in the rotation ahead of last game, and Ball saw over 30 minutes for the first time this season en route to 37 DraftKings points. He has legit triple-double upside at under $6,000, making him an elite tournament target.
New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks (-6.0) – 221.5 total
Pace: NYK (T24th), ATL (T12th)
Defensive Efficiency: NYK (T8th), ATL (20th)
Don’t look now, but the Knicks may not be the butt of jokes in the NBA anymore. In a game where they’re only six-point dogs against the up-tempo Hawks, it’s fair to assume there could be a heap of production here.
Of all the Knicks players, the two that stick out the most are Julius Randle and R.J. Barrett. Randle is priced up, but he’s topped 60 DK points twice already this season and is averaging over 20 more touches per game this season than he did last season. Barrett, priced at $6,900 on DraftKings, rarely sees less than 36 minutes in a game and has attempted at least 15 field goals in every game this season. That’s exactly what you want out of a cash-game play.
For the Hawks, Trae Young and John Collins continue to produce at reasonable price tags. It’ll be harder to get up to Young today with Luka Doncic only a few hundred more (if active) and Embiid in the same boat, which makes him an elite GPP play. Collins is also an elite tournament play, as he has legitimate 8x-upside at his $7,200 price on DraftKings.
Clint Capela is another player worth targeting in this game, and frankly, may be the most popular. He’s topped 30 minutes in back to back games, posted monster numbers on the glass and remains cheap at $6,100. In a two-center build, there’s a high likelihood he’d be one of my two centers on DraftKings.
The Atlanta wings are where I will likely be looking to fill my small forward spot in cash on both FanDuel and DraftKings. With Danilo Gallinari out and Kevin Huerter questionable, both DeAndre Hunter and Cam Reddish remain too cheap. Hunter is locked into more minutes in the starting lineup, making him my preferred option of the two.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Miami Heat (-7.5) – 213.5 total
Pace: OKC (T17th), MIA (15th)
Defensive Efficiency: OKC (15th), MIA (16th)
While this game has appeal to casual fans since the Thunder are playing tougher than expected, it’s not a great game environment to target from a fantasy perspective, as the total currently sits at 213.5.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is always worth a shot in tournaments, as is Bam Adebayo on the other side. The one play here that I would contemplate in single-entry or cash games is Jimmy Butler. $7,400 is criminally cheap for someone who carries such high peripheral upside.
Boston Celtics @ Toronto Raptors (-3)
Pace: BOS (T21st), TOR (8th)
Defensive Efficiency: BOS (18th), TOR (4th)
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown’s prices continue to creep towards each other, as they are now only $300 apart on DraftKings. Tatum’s usage rate is still incrementally higher while Brown’s peripheral rates look better, but at the end of the day, this is Tatum’s team. Both are viable in what should be a game that comes down to the wire, but Tatum is the preferred option.
Jeff Teague is questionable for the Celtics after exiting the Sunday tilt, which makes me think he’s leaning more towards doubtful. If he sits out, there’s a lot of merit to playing Payton Pritchard for $3,700 on DraftKings with the slate starving for elite value after he saw 25+ minutes last game.
For the Raptors, both Fred VanVleet and Chris Boucher are phenomenal point-per-dollar plays. After a slow start to the season, VanVleet has come around over his last four games, topping 45 DK points in three of those four, yet his $7,700 price tag on DraftKings and $7,900 tag on FanDuel haven’t adjusted to the fact. Boucher leads the Raptors in fantasy points per minute (1.39) and has the same usage rate (23.9%) as VanVleet. Assuming he can get another 25+ minutes on Monday, the sky's the limit.
Pascal Siakam remains cheap due to poor recent form, making him an appealing play, but with so many other viable big men on the slate, he falls down the pecking order quite a bit.
Dallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets (-1)
Pace: DAL (T27th), HOU (16th)
Defensive Efficiency: DAL (6th), HOU (21st)
There’s currently no total listed for this game, as both Luka Doncic and James Harden, arguably the two most ball-dominant players in the NBA, are listed as questionable.
Given the fact that Doncic sat out on Sunday, it would make sense if he suits up on Monday. If he does, he quickly becomes one of, if not the top overall play on the slate in a pace-up game. If he’s out, we can go right back to the well with the value plays in Jalen Brunson (49.25 DK points on Sunday), Trey Burke (still only $3,400), Josh Richardson ($5,300) and Dorian Finney-Smith.
If Harden is out, it makes sense to go back to the well with an under-priced John Wall, who posted a 36.2% usage rate in the game Harden. In fact, he’s priced so generously ($7,600 on DraftKings) that he makes for a viable play even if Harden is active. The same can be said for Christian Wood, who sits at $7,400 on DraftKings. He’s averaging over 24 points and 11 boards per game this season. That alone is worth a price tag of $2,000 more than he is.
Eric Gordon would also become a viable play if Harden is out. Unlike Wall and Wood, however, he’d be almost unusable at his price if Harden is in. If out, however, Gordon posted a 29.2% usage rate and averaged just under a fantasy point per minute.
Detroit Pistons @ Milwaukee Bucks (-13.5)
Pace: DET (T17th), MIL (4th)
Defensive Efficiency: DET (17th), MIL (7th)
Much like the Thunder game, this is a game that, even as a Bucks fan, I have little interest in from a DFS perspective. While it’s not due to a low total (which is not posted), the spread for this game has blowout written all over it.
However, if you’re on board with fading Doncic (if active) and Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo is the best pivot. A blowout won’t prevent him from getting his, as he topped 65 DraftKings points last game…in only 28 minutes. If you’re scripting your lineup assuming this game blows out, yet you’re fading Giannis, it makes sense to get exposure to Bobby Portis. He’s logged 25+ minutes in four games this season, all four of which ended in score differentials of 20+ points. Three of those four games saw Portis post at least 30 DK points. He remains cheap at under $5,000.
On the Detroit side of the ball, I can confidently say that there isn’t a single player who I have any vested interest in. Jerami Grant has played well, but at $6,900 with arguably the worst individual matchup on the entire slate, he’s an easy fade. Let others chase his game log.
Indiana Pacers @ New Orleans Pelicans (-1.5) – 218 total
Pace: IND (20th), NOP (T27th)
Defensive Efficiency: IND (11th), NOP (5th)
The Pacers have been an extremely productive team from a DFS perspective this season, but unfortunately, they are priced up with that in mind. Domantas Sabonis is still in play at $9,500 on DraftKings with his triple-double upside, but Embiid, Drummond and even Vucevic feel like better plays at their respective prices. Malcolm Brogdon is in a similar boat, sitting at $7,900. While much cheaper than Sabonis, he’s over $1,000 more than we’re accustomed to, making him difficult to fit considering the spots other top-end plays are in.
The Pacers player who I have the most interest in his Victor Oladipo. For $7,000 flat, you’re getting a player that has topped 35 DK points in all but one game this season. That one game, however, he logged 33.75. His floor is as stable as anyone’s this season.
The Pelicans are starting to show the volatility that many young teams do. Both Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram are in play at their prices, but the floors are lower than we’d like. Of the two, I still prefer Ingram, as he’ll come in at lower ownership while holding a usage rate over 30% and producing over 1.3 fantasy points per minute.
Eric Bledsoe is also still cheap on FanDuel at $5,100. Given his peripheral upside, he makes sense as a SG2 value play, but it’s certainly not a safe option.
Sacramento Kings (-2.5) @ Golden State Warriors – 232.5 total
Pace: SAC (T21st), GSW (T1st)
Defensive Efficiency: SAC (24th), GSW (29th)
Steph Curry reminded us why he’s a first-ballot Hall of Famer on Sunday, as he posted a career-high 62 points in a win against Portland. This is going to be a spot to rush right back to the well. The unfortunate part, however, is that it’ll be a popular strategy given his price tag of $9,300. Regardless, this is chalk worth eating given his massive usage rate.
Outside of Curry, it’s hard to fall in love with other Warriors. If Draymond Green sits on the second leg of a back-to-back and Eric Paschall starts, there’s merit there at $4,000 given the matchup. Kelly Oubre is also cheap at $5,500 and his production started to normalize on Sunday when he went 7-13 from the field.
On the other side of the ball, De'Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield find themselves in a great spot. The Warriors run at the fastest pace in the NBA, making Fox an elite tournament target and a must-play if game-stacking here. Hield is a better play on FanDuel, where his $5,700 price tag gives him a safe floor of 5x value.
Richaun Holmes has been playing great basketball lately, topping 30 minutes in three consecutive outings while topping 36 DraftKings points in two of those three. At $5,600, he’s worth a GPP stab, but the center position is loaded to the point where I don’t think I’d get here in single-entry with Clint Capela and Mitchell Robinson right above him.
