PrizePicks picks for NFL Week 12

We’re heading now into the Week 12 weekend NFL and fantasy football action. Hopefully everyone had a great Thanksgiving. And hopefully everyone played a lot of Will Fuller, Antonio Gibson and Deshaun Watson.

We shift our attention back to the main Sunday slate, more specifically, the PrizePicks option for Week 12 action.

If you haven’t played over at PrizePicks yet, it’s simple. Choose whether you believe a player goes over or under their given prop. You pick in groups of two, three or four, with players getting a larger payout for larger parlays.

• Two-pick entry pays 2.5x
• Three-pick entry pays 5x
• Four-pick entry pays 10x

Let’s look at Week 12, shall we?

Scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.

Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns (@ JAX)

Projected score: 16.0 points; the pick: OVER

Chubb has been back for two weeks and all he’s done is rush for 126 and 114 yards, finding the end zone once. During that two-game stretch, Chubb is averaging 6.1 yards per carry and 4.90 yards after contact per rush. And despite playing just six games this season, Chubb leads the NFL in runs of 20-plus yards, which bodes well for him in a matchup with the Jaguars, who are surrendering the fifth-most such runs on the year with nine. Jacksonville is also coughing up 2.66 points per drive, the second-most in football, while also allowing a healthy 1.3 rushing touchdowns per contest, good for the sixth-most in the league. Cleveland is calling run 52.1% of the time this year, the highest mark in the league, while opposing offenses are running the football 45.5% of the time against the Jaguars, which is the fifth-highest rate in the league. Even sharing some work with Kareem Hunt, Chubb should still reach the 20-carry mark in a terrific matchup.

Darren Waller, TE, Las Vegas Raiders (@ ATL)

Projected score: 14.5 points; the pick: OVER

Outside of Travis Kelce, Waller continues to be the most trustworthy tight end in all of fantasy. He is coming off a great game against the Chiefs, hauling in all seven of his targets for 88 yards and a touchdown and now gets an even better matchup in Atlanta. The Falcons are allowing 13.87 fantasy points and 0.8 touchdowns per game to opposing tight ends, both the most in football. They are also coughing up the second-most yards (62.2) and third-most receptions (5.7) per game to the position. You know Waller is getting the football, as his 28.1% target share leads all tight ends, while his 17 red-zone targets also pace the position. If the Falcons can put points on the board and keep Derek Carr throwing, Waller could easily go for 100 yards and a touchdown in this spot.

DeVante Parker, WR, New York Jets (@ NYJ)

Projected score: 12.8 points; the pick: OVER

The Miami offense struggled mightily last week, but Parker still managed to find the end zone. He remains the clear WR1 on this team with Preston Williams sidelined — with Williams out over the last two weeks, Parker is averaging eight targets per game. He also has four end-zone targets during that span, the second-most in the NFL behind Adam Thielen, who leads the league in that category for the entire season. Look for Parker to produce against a completely depleted Jets secondary that is coughing up the sixth-most fantasy points (12.8) and fifth-most receiving yards (65.6) per game to opposing receivers on the right side of the formation, where Parker is lining up around 40% of the time.

A.J. Brown, WR, Tennessee Titans (@ IND)

Projected score: 13.8 points; the pick: UNDER

This one is really, really close, and Brown is more than talented enough to make me look stupid here. However, the Colts defense is among the best in the league, and Indianapolis is at home for this AFC South rematch. Only the Steelers are allowing fewer yards per game when at home than Indianapolis, who also are sporting the fewest missed tackles in the NFL with 38, which is huge when trying to defend Brown, who is probably the best wideout in the league after the catch. The Colts are also top-five in YAC allowed on the season, while the presence of Corey Davis does hurt Brown’s ceiling at times. He is averaging just four receptions per game with Davis active this season, while averaging six fewer fantasy points per game. This one is going to be really, really close, and Brown did drop a long touchdown against this team back in Week 10, but I’ll side with the under.