Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The NFL season is nearly here, with teams finalizing their 53-man rosters and solidifying their depth charts. In this article, we are going to revisit the pre-training camp positional battles, today looking at quarterbacks and running backs.
Quarterbacks
Arizona Cardinals
Winner: Joshua Dobbs
The Cardinals placed Kyler Murray on the injured reserve list and ruled him out for at least four games. Rather than finding a replacement in-house, Arizona went to the trade market and sent a 2024 fourth-round pick to Cleveland in exchange for quarterback Joshua Dobbs and a 2024 seventh-round pick. They also released Colt McCoy with all signs pointing toward Dobbs as the Week 1 starter. Dobbs went 0-2 as a starter in Tennessee last season and completed 58.82% of his passes for 411 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions.
Atlanta Falcons
Desmond Ridder vs. Taylor Heinicke
Winner: Desmond Ridder
Desmond Ridder has remained the starter throughout training camp and played with the first-team offense in his lone playoff game. There were a lot of flaws in Ridder’s game as a passer last season. He finished 41st out of 47 in yards per attempt among all quarterbacks that attempted at least 100 passes (6.2). However, the team has continued to stockpile weapons on the offensive side of the ball, setting Ridder up for success in his second season. Although Taylor Heinicke is listed as second on the depth chart, he has a long track record of overtaking the starting gig by mid-season.
San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy vs. Trey Lance vs. Sam Darnold
Winner: Brock Purdy
The 49ers have stood behind Brock Purdy through his recovery, and he’s cleared to play and start Week 1. Barring health, there was no reason for Purdy to lose his job after leading San Francisco to the NFC Conference Championship with a perfect 7-0 record in games started and completed. Since stepping in for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo mid-game in Week 13, Purdy was one of the most efficient passers in the league, throwing 16 touchdown passes to just three interceptions while averaging the second-most yards per attempt among all signal-callers in 2022 (8.4). The same could not be said for the 2021 No. 2 overall pick, Trey Lance, who completed less than 50% of his passes last season (48.4%) and posted a 55.0 passer rating and a 36.9 quarterback rating. It’s hard to write off a player after less than eight games played in the NFL. However, the 49ers closed the book on the Lance experiment and sent him to Dallas in exchange for a 2024 fourth-round pick. As a result, Sam Darnold will open the season as the QB2, the primary backup to Purdy.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield vs. Kyle Trask
Winner: Baker Mayfield
2018 No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield has officially been named the starter, entering his sixth with a fourth different team. After getting released by the Panthers last season, Mayfield revitalized his career in Los Angeles and started the last four games with the Rams. The Buccaneers offense will look much different with Mayfield, who is unlikely to lead the NFL in pass attempts like his predecessor, Tom Brady, which will limit the ceiling for all the pass-catchers.
Tennessee Titans
Ryan Tannehill vs. Will Levis vs. Malik Willis
Winner: Ryan Tannehill
The Titans came one game short from winning their third straight divisional title last season, fishing second in the AFC South and missing the playoffs for the first time since Ryan Tannehill joined the team in 2019. Despite spending day-two capital addressing quarterback in back-to-back drafts, Tennessee is not ready to move on from Tannehill yet. He’s still listed as the starter entering the 2023 season. The backup to Tannehill remains a question mark with a second-round rookie, Will Levis dealing with a lower-body injury and missing the last two preseason games. Malik Willis holds the early lead for the QB2 job, once rumored as a potential cut candidate. Willis started three games last season and never surpassed 100 yards through the air.
Washington Commanders
Sam Howell vs. Jacoby Brissett
Winner: Sam Howell
The Commanders’ 2022 fifth-round quarterback, Sam Howell, did not see much playing time as a rookie but won over the coaching staff this offseason and was announced as the starter in Week 1. Although it is a small sample, Howell was excellent in his lone start, completing 68.8% of his passes and defeating the Cowboys 26-6 at home. If Howell struggles, Washington still has the option to turn to Jacoby Brissett who started 11 games for the Browns last season. In 2022, Brissett finished as PFF’s sixth-highest graded quarterback (82.6) and posted the 12th-best passing grade (75.2).
Running Backs
Buffalo Bills
James Cook vs. Damien Harris vs. Latavius Murray
Winner: James Cook
With Damien Harris sidelined for much of the preseason, James Cook dominated snaps with the first-team offense in the first two games and played firmly ahead of Latavius Murray. Once Harris returned in the final game, Cook still started and played the first nine snaps before getting subbed out in the red zone. Harris punched in a two-yard rushing touchdown on his lone carry, which could be a sign of how the backfield split will bear out in the regular season. It’s worth noting that Harris is only two seasons removed from leading the NFL in rushing touchdowns (15 scores in 2021). As a rookie, Cook surpassed a 45% snap share just once and played less than 30% of snaps in 13 out of 17 games. Despite handling less than 90 carries last season (89), Cook made the most of his opportunities and finished first among all running backs in yards per touch (6.8) and breakaway run rate (44%). His 5.7 yards per carry also ranked top-5 at the position. Cook is still the favorite to operate as the primary pass-catching back without having to leave the field in empty formations. In 2022, Cook lined up on the perimeter at the fifth-highest rate at the position (12%) and was utilized as a weapon in the passing game. Since entering the NFL in 2021, Harris has never caught more than 18 passes in a season.
Chicago Bears
Khalil Herbert vs. D’Onta Foreman vs. Roschon Johnson
Winner: Khalil Herbert
In the Bears’ first preseason game, Khalil Herbert was the only running back to play with the first team and logged a 100% snap share with Justin Fields. He saw one target in the game and took a screen pass for a 56-yard touchdown. The backfield rotation was much more of a split in their last outing, with Herbert playing the first two drives with the starters and D’Onta Foreman subbing in for the third. Fourth-round rookie, Roschon Johnson, took both backs off the field in passing situations and mixed in on third downs. There were reports that Foreman was a cut candidate, but all three backs made the final 53-man roster, which means a possible running back by committee situation. Chicago was one of the best offenses on the ground last season and finished second in rushing attempts (559), first in rushing yards (3,014), and seventh in rushing touchdowns (7). However, a lot of the production derived outside of the backfield, with Fields handling 21.21% of the carries, while leading the team in rushing yards (1,143) and rushing touchdowns (4). Herbert was third on the team in rushing but excelled with limited opportunities. He was top five among all players in yards per carry (5.7) and yards after contact per carry (3.67) and posted the highest explosive run rate in the NFL (0.17).
Denver Broncos
Javonte Williams vs. Samaje Perine
Winner: Javonte Williams
Javonte Williams made his preseason debut in Week 2 and immediately got the start in his first game back. He played 12 of 17 first- and second-down snaps with the first team, but only one of six snaps on third downs. Samaje Perine handled the rest and operated as the team’s primary pass-catching running back. He excelled in that department last season and caught a career-high 38 passes for 287 yards and four touchdowns with the Bengals.
Detroit Lions
Jahmyr Gibbs vs. David Montgomery
Winner: None
David Montgomery missed the preseason tending to an injury, and there’s no clarity of how the Lions backfield will pan out in 2023. As the much bigger back, it’s safe to assume that Montgomery is the most likely candidate to take over the Jamaal Williams role, who led the NFL in carries inside the 5-yard and rushing touchdowns, despite playing more than 50% of offensive snaps in just one out of 17 games. Montgomery has operated as a bellcow for most of his career, but that is unlikely to be the case sharing the backfield with a top 12 pick. At 5-foot-9 and 199 pounds, Jahmyr Gibbs may lose work on the goal line and early downs but should still see high-value touches as a receiver. In his final season at Alabama, Gibbs led the Crimson Tide in receptions and caught 44 passes for 444 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns. He also posted career-high marks as a rusher and handled 151 carries for 926 yards and seven rushing touchdowns.
Miami Dolphins
Raheem Mostert vs. Jeff Wilson vs. De’Von Achane
Winner: Raheem Mostert
The Dolphins have been looking to add a running back all offseason but have yet to make any notable signings or trades. With Jeff Wilson held out of the preseason due to an undisclosed injury, Raheem Mostert dominated first-team usage as the runaway leader of the backfield. De’Von Achane was the fourth running back to see the field and played behind Salvon Ahmed and Myles Gaskin, who is now a member of the Vikings. Achane appears to be buried on the depth chart, but his stock is trending up with Wilson recently placed on the injured reserve. Until Wilson returns, Mostert looks to be the feature back in Miami coming off a career year in 2022. In seven games without Wilson last season, Mostert was much more productive and averaged over 15 opportunities (15.6) and 78.3 scrimmage yards.
