Best Fantasy Football Draft Pick by Round: 2023

Ahhh … can you smell that? Fantasy football draft season is in the air, and it’s time to once again mark your 2023 cheat sheets with your favorite targets in each round.

This article will review the best picks in each round for your fantasy football draft strategy in 2023. Average draft position data comes from FTN’s Underdog ADP tool.

Best Pick in Round 1: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

You really can’t go wrong with an early Round 1 pick. Justin Jefferson is No. 1 in my latest rankings. I used to have Christian McCaffrey in the top spot, but I think the best Round 1 pick is probably Ja’Marr Chase.

He usually goes within the first three picks (and like I said, you can’t go wrong), but the real reason I love taking him is because of how easy it is to stack him with Joe Burrow (and maybe even Tee Higgins) in future rounds. Of course, it’s easy to stack Justin Jefferson with Kirk Cousins, but that’s not as sexy.

On a per-game basis (Chase only played 11 games last year), Chase tied Justin Jefferson with the most targets in the league (11). And Chase trailed only Davante Adams in touchdowns per game. That marks two years now in which Chase has been a dominant TD scorer. He now has 22 touchdowns through 29 career games. For comparison: Jefferson has 25 despite playing three full seasons to Chase’s 1.5ish.

There’s a realistic chance Chase is the No. 1 WR. And he’s easier to stack with better teammates. And he’ll definitely score more touchdowns. There’s a lot to like.

He was also the 15th most valuable player in all of fantasy football last year despite missing five games.

Best Pick in Round 2: Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys

Round 2 is pretty loaded this year. It’s tough to pick a favorite. But I’ll go with Tony Pollard. He was the 20th most valuable player in all of fantasy football last year and he’s being picked right around No. 20 this year.

But there’s one big difference everyone is forgetting: Ezekiel Elliott is no longer there. Elliott accounted for 248 total touches and scored 12 rushing touchdowns.

Will Pollard get all of that work? Probably not. Will he get a good chunk of it? Absolutely.

So we’re drafting Pollard at his 2022 value even though his 2023 outlook is significantly improved with no Elliott. It makes no sense.

Best Pick in Round 3: Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

Josh Jacobs deserves a major shout out here, because if he plays a full season. He’ll go down as the smashing obvious pick of Round 3. Ditto for Breece Hall.

I really like both RBs for a risk-reward play, but pound for pound, I think Josh Allen is the best pick of Round 3. You could include Jalen Hurts here, too, but Allen consistently goes in Round 3 while Hurts is often a Round 2 pick.

Finding positive regression signals for a player who has finished as the QB1, QB1 and QB2 over the last three years is hard to do — but they are there with Allen. He led all quarterbacks in Expected Fantasy Points last year with 447.3 — well ahead of Patrick Mahomes in second (418.1).

The primary reason: Based on where he threw the ball, Allen should have thrown 40 touchdowns last year, but he only threw 32.

Best Pick in Round 4: Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

I mentioned some risk-reward RBs I like in Round 3, but there’s another in Round 4: Joe Mixon.

Mixon’s risks are not injury- or holdout-related, of course, and there’s still a chance he’ll be suspended by the league (especially with a new civil suit), but as August rolls on with no action, it looks less and less likely.

He was the most explosive RB in fantasy football last year (a good thing!) and the team lost Samaje Perine, leaving just Chase Brown (rookie fifth-round pick), Trayveon Williams (55 career touches) and Chris Evans (35 career touches) behind him.

It’s looking like Mixon will be lined up for a ton of touches in one of the most lethal offenses in the NFL — in the fourth round!

Best Pick in Round 5: Marquise Brown, WR. Arizona Cardinals

At 60th overall, Marquise Brown sometimes even slips into the sixth round. In Weeks 1-6 last year, Brown was an elite fantasy wideout. Here were the PPR standings through 1.5 months of football:

Cooper Kupp — 150.8
Stefon Diggs — 150.6
Tyreek Hill — 133.9
Justin Jefferson — 133.9
Ja’Marr Chase — 110.7
Marquise Brown — 109.5
Jaylen Waddle — 103
Davante Adams — 102.4
A.J. Brown — 95.3
Deebo Samuel — 93.1

Other than Brown and Deebo Samuel (Round 3), every single one of those players is drafted in the first or second round this year. Brown is available at the five-six turn.

Kyler Murray’s health plays a role in this depressed value, but even still, Brown is the clear No. 1 wideout with DeAndre Hopkins now in Tennessee.

Best Pick in Round 6: Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I just can’t quit Mike Evans that easily. I actually have him ranked similarly to his ADP, but the upside he provides in this range is huge.

His QB situation is maybe as bad as it’s even been — or at least as bad as the Josh McCown/Mike Glennon days — but his price point is basically his floor.

Evans struggled last year and went touchdown-less from Weeks 5-15. But he was still the overall WR29 in that span — well ahead of his current ADP.

Best Pick in Round 7: Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos

James Conner or Javonte Williams? It was a tough call — I think both are solid picks in Round 7 — but give me Williams, who is simply underpriced because of his 2022 injury.

All reports are that Williams is ready to roll. The Broncos plan to play him in the preseason — that’s how confident they are. His ADP has been steadily dropping ever since camp opened:

Best Pick in Round 8: Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints

Here we go. Kamara’s ADP shot down about a half-round after news of his three-game suspension broke, but in the last couple of days it has tapered off. News Kareem Hunt might join the Saints Tuesday had people really backing off Kamara. (Hunt headed to Indianapolis after his visit with the Saints, so nothing is done there yet.)

You shouldn’t be among those backing off. Kamara is the lead back for the Saints — at least in 2023. A three-game suspension is already baked into his ADP here (I think too much), and you’re drafting Kamara at his absolute floor in this range.

Jamaal Williams is going to steal touchdowns — but that has been the case throughout most of Kamara’s career, and it has not mattered for his fantasy utility.

Kamara’s days as a top-five fantasy RB are in the past, but when you can get him this cheap as your RB4, it’s a no-brainer.

Best Pick in Round 9: Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions

I guess I love the suspended players. While you may not want to take all of them on the same team — especially because IR spots don’t let you house suspended players — Jameson Williams is absolutely worth it around pick 100.

He’s your cheap playoff hammer. He’s also cheap access to the ascending Lions offense. Amon-Ra St. Brown is going to be a stud out of the slot, but the outside receiver role is Williams’ for the taking.

And I repeat this stat so much, but I don’t care. In the name of upside-chasing, this is worth mentioning for the 100th time:

Best Pick in Round 10: Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

It gets pretty gross by Round 10 — but there are a few upside shots here that are worth mentioning. Anthony Richardson is worth mentioning for his league-winning upside, but I also love Dak Prescott in Round 10 as the QB12 off boards.

QB12 is more like Prescott’s floor. In Weeks 8-17 last year (he returned from injury in Week 7, so I’m willing to say it was rust), Prescott was the QB8 in overall fantasy points. Even if you include Week 7, he was QB11 — which is still ahead of his current ADP.

And keep in mind, this was a “down” year for the Cowboys and the passing attack in general. Prescott finished top-six among fantasy QBs in both 2019 and 2021. The Cowboys were top-10 in rush rate last year (47.3%), but with no Ezekiel Elliott, we’ll hopefully see more of an emphasis on the passing attack.

Good Dart Throws in the Later Rounds

Below are some of my favorite dart throws in the later rounds, where you’re really shooting for potential upside above all else: