NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Welcome to the Dynasty Stock Watch, a weekly article where I address the changes in the dynasty fantasy football landscape. This will help us as managers stay current on the most recent headlines, while also allowing us to look at player and team trends to stay ahead of the curve.
Today, we’re looking at a handful of veteran running backs whose lives as big-time fantasy contributors might have gotten extended this month. Every year, there are a handful of running backs who enter the draft with tenuous holds on their starting jobs. Some (like Tyler Allgeier getting displaced by Bijan Robinson in Atlanta, or Kenneth Walker getting undercut by Zach Charbonnet in Seattle) saw that tenuous hold disappear. But others, which we’ll get to below, didn’t have their teams bring in serious competition, meaning they are in good fantasy shape for 2023 and beyond.
Miles Sanders, Carolina Panthers
Miles Sanders is coming off a career year where he rushed for over 1,000 yards for the first time while finding the end zone 11 times for the Eagles. Now as a member of the Panthers, he is set to be their lead back, especially with no addition to the backfield in the draft. With only Chuba Hubbard behind him on the depth chart, Sanders should see a significant workload in Frank Reich’s run-heavy offense that has not finished lower than 20th in the league in rushing attempts for the last seven years.
The Panthers have a rookie quarterback (presumably) starting Week 1 in Bryce Young, and he doesn’t exactly have an elite supporting cast of playmakers at wide receiver. In other words, don’t be surprised if the Panthers lean on the run game, especially early. With this volume and young developing offensive line, it’s easy to see Sanders being a consistent RB2 as long as he can fall into the end zone half a dozen times this season.
J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
J.K. Dobbins has been one of the more efficient running backs in the league over his two seasons (with a 2021 lost to injury sandwiched in there), averaging 5.9 yards per carry. Entering the 2023 season, he is now two years removed from the knee injury and entering the final year of his rookie contract. This is also his first season in a Todd Monken-led offense. Monken has most recently produced an efficient Georgia rushing attack. With the Ravens choosing to pass on a running back in the draft and free agency, Dobbins will get a chance to see his largest opportunity share in his career.
If he can maintain his career efficiency numbers it is easy to see how he could potentially be a weekly starting fantasy running back this season in what should be a much more explosive offense. That makes him the perfect running back to target, especially if his stock stays low in what was perceived as a down offense at the end of last year.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
There are many questions about the future of Joe Mixon in Cincinnati, but with the Bengals waiting until the fifth round to address the position, it restored some confidence in his status for 2023. Last season, we saw Mixon handle a significant amount of the Bengals’ backfield touches, leading to a top-10 finish in PPR scoring with 240.7 points. With Samaje Perine now on to Denver (leaving only Chris Evans and rookie Chase Brown to back Mixon up), there is a route to even more touches for Mixon in 2023. He could potentially be cut post-June 1, but with the state of the backfield, that appears increasingly unlikely. Being part of one of the most explosive offenses in the league makes him a weekly starter. Mixon could be in line for a season that looks more like his 2021 season, when he finished as the RB4 in PPR scoring. The long-term future is definitely in question, but if I’m a dynasty contender, I am OK with a potential high-end one-year rental here. His value is depreciated significantly as well, this makes him incredibly affordable.
Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
It seemed like a lock that the Cowboys would address the running back position in the draft once they released long-time staple Ezekiel Elliott, but that didn’t happen. A huge beneficiary of this is Tony Pollard, who was last year’s RB7 in PPR scoring with 248.8 PPR points. He did this without leading the backfield in touches — he trailed Elliott 248-232. As things stand right now, it looks like the Cowboys will enter 2023 with Tony Pollard and Ronald Jones as their top backs (an Elliott reunion has been discussed, but even if he’s back he won’t command the touches he used to). This should allow Pollard to see an increase in touches for a fifth consecutive season. If he can maintain anything close to his career 5.7 yards per touch, the overall RB1 is not out of the question here. He is most likely one of the more expensive additions on this list, but the return is worth the cost.
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
The Patriots seemed like a strong candidate to draft at least one back, but they didn’t. That obviously only helps Rhamondre Stevenson. Stevenson is coming off a season where he posted over 1,400 scrimmage yards and 6 touchdowns en route to an RB7 finish with 249.1 PPR points. With over 120 touches vacated by Damien Harris, Stevenson should see another increase in opportunities, even with some of the touches getting split between Kevin Harris and Pierre Strong.
With more opportunities coming his way and the run-heavy attack the Patriots deploy, there’s an outside path to a top-three PPR finish for Stevenson in 2023. To get there, he would obviously need to find the end zone more regularly. Stevenson is only entering the third year of his contract, which is a huge bonus in dynasty, as we have added security knowing we should get at least two years of production.
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Second-round rookie saw an increase in opportunities over the course of last season. He ended the year with 771 scrimmage yards (481 rushing, 290 receiving) and 3 touchdowns on 179 touches despite spending most of the year as Leonard Fournette’s backup. With Tampa heading into a rebuild, the team dumped Leonard Fournette and didn’t bring in any serious competition in the draft, meaning White is the unquestioned starter entering 2023.
Even if the offense takes yet another step back in 2023, White’s volume will be impossible to ignore. Considering what’s around him, he’s unlikely to enter the top-12 conversation, but he should have no issue being a back-end starting running back if nothing changes between now and the start of the season.
