Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to the Dynasty Stock Watch, a weekly article where I address the changes in the dynasty fantasy football landscape. This will help us fantasy managers stay current on the most recent headlines, while also allowing us to look at player and team trends to stay ahead of the curve.
Darren Waller Gets a Fresh Start
Darren Waller battled injuries for the second straight season and fell short as a fantasy asset. He finished outside the top 30 tight ends with only 84.8 PPR points and averaged only 9.4 points per game, both his lowest numbers since his 2019 breakout. He missed eight games, which cost him on the raw totals, but even when he was active, Waller’s workload plummeted, with only 4.8 targets per game on the season after averaging 8.3 per game the last three years (at least 7.3 each season). He only scored 3 touchdowns, well off the 9 he scored in his career year in 2020.
With Davante Adams firmly in place and Jakobi Meyers added this offseason, the Raiders were able to move on from Waller, trading him to a Giants team that desperately needed of pass catcher help. Waller should certainly see a significant target share for New York. Waller is one of the few pass catchers over 6-foot-3 on the roster, which tells me he’s in line for a lot of red-zone targets in 2023. I think Waller’s peak of 9 touchdowns is attainable again if he stays healthy. In other words, between the target upside and the touchdown upside, this move should be great for Waller as a dynasty asset. He turns 31 during Week 1, but Waller could still have a few years of high-end production left – especially with Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka helping get him the ball.
Miles Sanders Joins the Panthers
After a career year where Miles Sanders produced over 1,200 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns on 259 rushing attempts, the Eagles decided to let him walk in free agency. Sanders is only 26 as of May 1 and has only having 863 career touches, which tells me he should still have a lot of tread on the tires. He landed a favorable deal (four years, $25 million) in Carolina to become Frank Reich’s lead back. This was a bit surprising, but it is the best-case scenario for him as a fantasy asset. With little competition (Chuba Hubbard is his No. 2), Sanders should be able to top 250 touches again in 2023.
On the negative side, the touchdown success may regress, as the Panthers aren’t likely to be producing the kinds of points the Eagles did in 2022. After 11 touchdowns in 2023, Sanders might not get about half a dozen scores (or fewer). That said, the Panthers have a good young offensive line that graded out at 83.6 as a run-blocking unit via PFF (Eagles graded at 86.8) that helped produce the 10th-most rushing yards in the league (2,210) last season. With a rookie quarterback coming in, they will need to lean on the run game a lot to help keep the pressure off the new arrival, which should lead to more touches for Sanders. It’s also possible Sanders offers more as a receiver — he had 63 and 52 targets in his first two seasons, but only 34 and 26 the last two. Reich has used his backs as receivers significantly in the past. This could help hold Sanders in the RB2 territory weekly — although he likely doesn’t have top-12 potential, Sanders will be a consistent top-24 option in 2023 if nothing changes in the Panthers backfield.
Jamaal Williams Comes Marching In
After career highs in 2022, Jamaal Williams landed a modest three-year, $12 million deal with the Saints. Williams set a Lions franchise record with 17 touchdowns last year – four more than in his five other seasons combined. He also produced over 1,100 scrimmage yards on 274 touches, his fourth straight season of 700-plus yards, but his first over 1,000. And he did all that while splitting touches with D’Andre Swift in Detroit and Aaron Jones in Green Bay throughout his career.
In New Orleans, he will split touches with another great pass catcher in Alvin Kamara. The Saints have been vocal about reducing Kamara’s touches per game, which means Williams should see a significant workload. Also, Kamara has a potential suspension looming, which could result in a significant bump in Williams’ touches. That sets him up to potentially surpass his career highs of 45 targets, 39 receptions 253 yards and 5 receiving touchdowns (all set in 2019). It does seem more likely Williams regresses close to his career average of 152.5 attempts, 608.7 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns, than he is to repeat his 2022 success. Nonetheless, he should be a solid RB3 weekly with a significant touchdown upside in an improved Saints offense.
Brandin Cooks Staying in Texas
Brandin Cooks regressed statistically in 2022 for the first time in three years, but you could argue that was more due to his supporting cast than Cooks himself. Cooks saw 93 targets, his lowest as a Texan. To make matters worse, only 65% of them were catchable, via the FTN Fantasy stats hub. He did catch 61% (57) of his targets for 699 yards and 3 scores. This poor play made him almost unstartable in fantasy, as he only finished with 145.6 PPR points and was outside the top 40 wide receivers.
Now he is in Dallas, where the Cowboys are desperate for a secondary option outside of CeeDee Lamb. Michael Gallup returned from a torn ACL last year, but he didn’t pop like the Cowboys (and fantasy managers) had hoped. Cooks’ arrival should help all three receivers, though. Cooks gets a huge QB upgrade, Lamb gets someone else to draw defensive attention, and Gallup gets to be the No. 3 option in an ascending offense. Even though Cooks turns 30 in September, he has still shown enough juice to be interesting. That said, Cooks’ window of production is likely closing sooner than later, which makes him a perfect player for any contending roster. If you are looking to rebuild, he could be a great piece to use as trade bait to try and acquire tangible assets going forward.
New Duo in Houston
The Texans added a couple of budget veterans Monday by signing Devin Singletary and Dalton Schultz. Singletary is coming off a season where he averaged 5.1 yards per touch (his most since his rookie year) en route to his second straight season of 1,000 scrimmage yards. Over his four-year career in Buffalo, he has totaled 4,122 scrimmage yards and 20 total touchdowns. He can split time with Dameon Pierce to help lighten the load for a running back, who has struggled with large volume workloads. He is not flashy but effective in all facets of the game, allowing him to play on every down. This move is ultimately not good news for either back as both cap the other’s ceilings in a low-scoring offense that requires volume to be a top fantasy producer.
Schultz is a nice signing for the team as they get a strong two-way tight end, but it is also appealing for fantasy (at the moment). Over his career, Schultz has relied on volume for his productivity, and he should see this in Houston. He has topped 80 targets in the last three seasons in Dallas and finished as a top-12 option each year. This past season the Texans attempted more passes (579) than the Cowboys’ 556, but with a new regime predicated on defense and a rookie quarterback coming into the building, I expect that number to drop. I can still see a ton of volume for Schultz this season, so he is a potential sneaky play, especially at an extremely shallow position. The main worry would be that the Texans add a wide receiver in the draft or free agency, but if not, Schultz could see 100 targets this season, hard volume to come by for any tight end not named Travis Kelce.
