NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
We’ve got six games of NBA action in front of us, and it should be an interesting slate.
The four-game main slate has three games that have a spread of three points or less, while one game stands out with a 236-point total. Let’s talk about it all!
1. Evan Mobley is 11th in points per game as the roll man in the pick-and-roll (Early)
The Cavaliers are taking on the Hornets, and potentially the largest concern could be if Charlotte gets blown out. However, Cleveland has already listed Jarrett Allen as doubtful, and we know to attack the Hornets with talented big men. The FTN Advanced DvP Tool tells us just how good of a matchup this is for Evan Mobley –
Mobley is likely going to get even more opportunities to be the roll man, as Allen is at a 24.7% frequency. He is among my favorite plays as things stand on the early slate and is likely to be one of the more popular ones as well.
2. The Wizards are tied for the fourth-highest points per possession defending the post-up
They are also just 17th in points allowed in the paint, and the DvP matchup for Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid has more green on it than a St. Patrick’s Day parade. Washington center Daniel Gafford is not going to have a ton of luck dealing with Embiid since he’s second in the league in points per game in the post-up and scores over 1.60 points per minute. Embiid is coming off a game where he hit the game-winning shot and is charging hard to possibly win an MVP, while Philly is still jockeying for position in the Eastern Conference.
3. Portland is 23rd against primary ball-handlers in the past 15 games
They have struggled to defend that player type, and when they face the Pelicans on Sunday, CJ McCollum could have the ball in his hands an awful lot. The status of Brandon Ingram is an important one to track through the day, as he missed Saturday’s game with an ankle issue. Some may say that if Ingram plays they’re not as interested in McCollum, but perhaps that isn’t the best way to look at it. In the past two games, Jonas Valanciunas has only played a combined 23 minutes. When he, Zion Williamson and Larry Nance are off the floor, McCollum has a 32.7% usage rate and 1.24 points per minute. McCollum could wind up being a little sneaky if Ingram is in, and he’s an even better play if Ingram is out.
4. Oklahoma City is dead last in rebounds allowed
That should mean only good things for both Zach Collins and Charles Bassey, although it should be noted that Bassey only played a handful of minutes after Collins was ejected from the game on Friday night. The Spurs went a different route and sat Bassey in the fourth quarter, so Collins is certainly the safer play from a minutes perspective. Since the Spurs traded Jakob Poeltl, Collins is averaging over five paint touches per game and is scoring 1.10 points per minute. On top of that, he’s averaging 13.6 rebound chances per game and the salary is reasonable on both sites. The Spurs have listed Jeremy Sochan and Keldon Johnson as questionable, so the upside for Collins is even higher if they sit out.
5. D’Angelo Russell had 72 touches for the Lakers on Friday night
That was his first game back after injuring his ankle, and he played 31 minutes. Those were some very encouraging signs for a team that is trying to make a playoff push and since he’s come to Los Angeles, D’Angelo Russell has sported a 26.3% usage rate and 1.18 points per minute when LeBron James has been off the court. The Knicks are 28th against primary ball-handlers on the season, and this slate may not lend itself to playing multiple studs as Saturday night did. One way to get exposure to the Lakers if you cannot afford Anthony Davis is Russell, who also averaged just under five seconds per touch. Good things tend to happen for fantasy when a player leads his team in touches and holds the ball for that much of the shot clock every touch.
