Monday Night Football DFS Preview, Week 16: Chargers at Colts

The Los Angeles Chargers continue to make their playoff push in Indianapolis tonight when they take on the Colts, and it’s a must-win game for the Chargers. We’re going to have a Nick Foles sighting on the Colts’ side of the ball with Matt Ryan benched for the second time this year, while the Chargers are healthy for one of the few times this season. Let’s talk about who we like and how to build for this showdown.

Be sure to check out David Jones’ “General Rules” article for Showdown Strategy and his piece for each game, along with the DFS Showdown Strategy articles for each slate. Additionally, the FTN Live Stream every game night will provide the latest insight for each slate.

NFL DFS Monday Night Breakdown: Los Angeles Chargers at Indianapolis Colts

Chargers -4, O/U 45.5 (Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook)

Los Angeles Chargers Plays for Week 16 DFS – MNF Showdown and Primetime Slates

Quarterback 

It’s been a little over a week since Justin Herbert flopped against Tennessee, and it’s still hurting me since I was so excited to play him in that spot. That rough game happened even though Herbert was over 40 attempts, and he’s up to second in attempts on the season. Herbert is also second in yards, 12^th in points per game and third in red-zone attempts. That volume has been vital for Herbert since he’s only 27^th in points per dropback and 26^th in yards per attempt for a myriad of reasons, including injuries to him and his receivers. 

The Colts might be sixth in stuff rate on the season, but they’re also 13^th in DVOA against the run and 27^th in points allowed per game. It was a little odd to see Austin Ekeler targeted just three times last week, but that would appear to be an aberration since he has a 19.9% target share on the year. Granted, the receivers were back for the Chargers for only the second time this season, and Ekeler has fallen to a 12.9% target share over the past two weeks. Even though it’s probably going to dip a little bit, Ekeler is still first in receiving yards and receptions, along with first in points per game. 

Ekeler is only 23^rd in rushing yards but has found the end zone 14 times to lead the position and is fourth in yards created per touch. The Colts have not defended running backs well through the air since they’ve allowed the fifth-most receiving yards and the seventh-most receptions per game. Ekeler is one of the safer players on the slate. If he had the most points, it wouldn’t be that big of a surprise. Joshua Kelley has also been involved lately, recording seven, five and 11 touches in the past three weeks, and he poached a touchdown last week. The DK price is still a little expensive for a backup, and if he only gets 5-8 touches without a score, it’s tough to feel good about playing him. 

Wide Receiver 

We now have a two-game sample for Mike Williams and Keenan Allen starting and finishing games together, and the points have been almost dead even. They go about it in different ways, but Allen has scored 37.8 DK points and Williams has 34.3 DK points. Allen has the clear lead in targets at 23 (along with four red-zone looks), while Williams is at just 14, but the aDOT for Williams is 14.4 yards compared to 5.7 yards for Allen. That leaves Williams with a 37.4% air yards share, and he is 20^th in points per game this year. He also is going to get the majority of snaps against Stephon Gilmore, who is the best corner in the secondary. He’s only allowed a 62% catch rate with 0.21 points per route, and the salary for Williams might look pretty high compared to Allen’s matchup. 

Since Allen is running out of the slot 64% of the time, he’s going to face a lot of Julian Blackmon. While the points per route are only 0.19, Blackmon has allowed a 73% catch rate. With Allen earning a 27.1% target share over the past two weeks, that has to be interesting. On a PPR-scoring site like DK, Allen could clean up on receptions. Even though he’s only “played” in seven games (multiple injuries have meant he hasn’t finished all seven), he has 11 red-zone targets overall, tied with Williams, who has started 10 games. 

Allen has the highest-graded matchup in the WR/CB Matchup Tool and with that, I’d give him a lean over Williams even though both are very much in play. Joshua Palmer has taken a backseat in the last couple of games with just 11 targets, but he’s still racked up 9/102/0 with those 11 targets and faces mostly Isaiah Rodgers. He’s similar to Blackmon, only allowing 0.15 points per route but a 71% catch rate, so all three corners have a vulnerability. DeAndre Carter has only played 18.5% of the snaps compared to 67.6% for Palmer and likely only has relevance if he catches a touchdown. 

Tight End 

Gerald Everett is a nice stacking option with Herbert, but that might be the only way I’d play him on this slate. He’s stayed involved in the past two games with 14 targets, and the 3.8-yard aDOT is the safety valve in the offense on a lot of plays after Ekeler. The Colts are only 13^th in points per game allowed, but Everett has been a meaningful addition to this offense and a solid option at the position. He’s 10^th in points per game, ninth in yards, seventh in receptions, seventh in targets and fifth in red-zone targets. That latter number is very appealing, and even with the receivers back he’s had three red-zone looks over the past two games. It’s an oddity that he’s only scored twice, and there should be some regression coming for that number – potentially tonight. 

Defense/Special Teams 

Indy is now on their third quarterback of the season and without their star running back, so this matchup does have a little extra appeal. The Colts have allowed the third-most sacks this season, although the Chargers are just 27^th in sacks with a 6% sack rate. Los Angeles is also just 17^th in total DVOA and 26^th in points per game allowed, but the Colts “counter” that by only ranking 29^th in points scored per game. They’re on the third quarterback for a reason, and leading the league in turnovers doesn’t help the cause. There is nothing wrong with banking on some dysfunction from the Indy offense tonight. 

Kicker 

After being haunted for seemingly years by the kicker position, the Chargers have found Cameron Dicker, and he’s been excellent in his eight games. He’s yet to hit a field goal of at least 50 yards, but five of his 15 conversions have come from more than 40 yards, and he’s hit all 16 of his extra points. Indy is only 11^th in yards allowed per game, but they aren’t the best defense inside the red zone, sitting 30th in conversion rate allowed. 

Indianapolis Colts Plays for Week 16 MNF DFS – MNF Showdown and Primetime Slates 

Notable Injuries – CB Kenny Moore, TE Kylen Granson (O)

Quarterback  

Nick Foles costs $9,000 even though he’s not thrown a pass this season. He also hasn’t thrown more than 35 attempts since 2020, although we’ve seen this week that backup players can come off the bench and have big games. The Colts offense is a lot less talented overall than the Eagles are around Gardner Minshew, but Foles could turn in a solid effort. In the spot start he had last year, he scored close to 17 points. The Chargers are just 20^th in points per game allowed, 20^th in yards per attempt allowed and 13^th in DVOA against the pass. It’s not the worst matchup ever, but the Colts are 21^st in pass rate since Jeff Saturday has been the head coach. I believe he’ll be a fine option but not one I have to jam in every lineup.

Running Back 

We know Ekeler is the main man on the other side of the game, but with Jonathan Taylor on IR, Zack Moss and Deon Jackson are much tougher to figure out. Taylor left almost immediately last game, and Moss took over with 67.1% of the snaps and 24 carries, including eight in the red zone. Jackson only took 31.7% of the snaps and 13 carries, three of which came in the red zone. Reading the comments being made around the team this week, it sure sounds like Moss is going to be the two-down hammer and Jackson is going to be the change-of-pace and pass-catching back. 

Moss is outwardly saying he’s learning the pass game, and it’s a spectacular matchup for both players. Los Angeles is 31^st in yards per attempt, 29^th in stuff rate, 25^th in DVOA against the run, 31^st in rushing yards per game allowed and 27^th in points per game allowed. Jackson was far more efficient last week and is 18^th in yards created per touch on the year. Moss would be outside the top 40, and Saturday has hinted the hot hand approach could be deployed as well. I don’t believe Jordan Wilkins will be heavily involved, but with teams like Indy that are way out of it for the postseason, any outcome is on the table. I would play plenty of both backs in MME, but I would lean a little more toward Jackson for the explosive ability. And if they trail, Jackson has the better chance to stay involved in the offense even though both backs had one target each in Week 15.

Wide Receiver

It takes some extrapolation since it was 2020 and a different team, but when Foles was playing for the Bears, his top two receivers had a 23.8% and 15.4% target share each. His third receiver (this group was Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney and Anthony Miller) drew a 14.8% target share and was mostly a slot receiver, so we at least have a starting point. If things hold steady, that should be good news for Michael Pittman since he has a 26.3% target share and has the highest-graded matchup. Asante Samuel should be on Pittman a lot, and Samuel has only allowed a 60% catch rate but also allowed 0.30 points per route. Pittman has been held hostage to some extent by the offense since he’s seventh in targets and fifth in receptions but only 21^st in yards with just touchdowns. Pittman is also just 21^st in points per game and 54^th in yards run per route, a very frustrating number. 

The secondary receivers are tougher to sort through since Parris Campbell is in the slot 81% of the time and Alec Pierce has the highest aDOT in the corps at 12.7 yards. Campbell has a slight lead in target share at 14.7% to 13.9% and red-zone targets at 7-5, and Bryce Callahan in the slot has been the worst statistical corner in the secondary. He’s allowed a 74% catch rate and 0.24 points per route, while Michael Davis allows only a 53% catch rate on the boundary and 0.23 points per route. I’m not convinced Foles is going to come in and give Pierce many opportunities to do much here and would rather take the relative safety of Campbell with Pittman being the best play of the corps. 

Tight End 

Foles also targeted his tight end 15.1% of the time, and the Colts are missing a tight end, so this could be a big game for Jelani Woods. I wouldn’t call for another 8/98 game like he had on Monday Night Football earlier this season, but crazier things have happened this week. Foles tends to target tight ends at a reasonable rate, and the combined target share between Woods and Kylen Granson is 16.9%. Mo Alie-Cox is minimum-priced and could see an extra target or two, but he’s been terribly uninvolved. To be fair, Woods has been as well, but Granson being out helps concentrate the targets, and we can look at the quarterback change as well. The Chargers have allowed the 15^th-most points per game, so the matchup is neutral and Woods is very inexpensive. In a game they should trail, I like him in lineups so that I can pay up for the Chargers studs.

Defense/Special Teams 

It’s tougher to go against a fully healthy Los Angeles offense, although the offensive line is still the weak point. They have allowed the highest pressure rate in football and 34 sacks, and the Colts have tied for the seventh-most sacks despite just a 24% pressure rate. The Chargers are just outside the top 12 in points per game, and considering the injury issues they’ve had, that is impressive. The Colts defense isn’t a ball-hawking unit this year with just 15 turnovers forced, so this isn’t one of my favorite plays. 

Kicker 

Chase McLaughlin is tied for the fifth-most attempts on the season, and the spread isn’t wide enough to totally discard him. Los Angeles is 21^st in yards allowed per game, so Indy could move the ball and is 14^th in red-zone conversion rate, which could help McLaughlin into an extra attempt or two. He’s averaging 9.3 points per game, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see Foles struggle to get the ball in the end zone with a set of backup running backs as well. McLaughlin has hit 16-of-27 kicks from 40+ yards. 

Core Plays 

• Keenan Allen
• Justin Herbert
• Jelani Woods