Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Three months ago, Underdog Fantasy launched the largest best ball tournament in history, featuring 451,200 entries and $10 million in total prizes. 30% of the prize pool will be split among three entries, including $2 million to first, $1 million to second, and $1 million to the highest-scoring team in the regular season (Weeks 1-14). Drafts consist of 12-person lobbies with 18 rounds.
That means you need to nail your picks. So I’m going round-by-round and highlighting some of my favorite players. Today, Rounds 1-6. As ADP changes throughout the summer, you can stay up to date using the Underdog tool on FTN Fantasy. Sign up for Underdog Fantasy with promo code “FTN” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.
Check out Jeff’s Ratcliffe’s top 100 fantasy football rankings for 2022.
Round 1: Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Cooper Kupp was nothing short of spectacular last season, leading the league in targets (191), catches (145), receiving yards (1,947) and receiving touchdowns (16). He became the fourth triple crown winner in NFL history and scored the most fantasy points ever by a wide receiver (367 in half PPR). Kupp thrived in his first season with Mathew Stafford, earning a league-high 31.7% target share. In the offseason, the Rams traded Robert Woods to the Tennessee Titans and signed Allen Robinson to a three-year, $46.5 million deal. Kupp led all skill players in fantasy points last season and has a genuine case to be the first player off the board.
Round 2: Leonard Fournette, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Leonard Fournette’s value has shifted dramatically throughout the offseason. Following Tom Brady’s “retirement,” Fournette spent the first few weeks of free agency on the open market without an ideal landing spot. Once Brady announced his return to the league, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers re-signed Fournette to a three-year, $21 million deal. Last season, Fournette finished as a top-six running back despite playing only 14 games. He ranked 14th in scrimmage yards (1,266) and had 10 total touchdowns. Fournette took command of the backfield as the season progressed, earning Brady’s trust. He was a significant threat in the receiving game, catching 69 passes (nice) for 454 yards and two touchdowns. The Buccaneers will be without Rob Gronkowski in 2022 and could be missing Chris Godwin for an extended period. This bodes well for Fournette, who should see an increased role as a pass catcher.
Round 3: Michael Pittman, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Michael Pittman’s fantasy stock received a significant boost after the Colts traded for Matt Ryan. After a quiet rookie season, Pittman burst onto the scene as a sophomore, catching 88 passes for 1,082 yards and six touchdowns. He established himself as the alpha among Colts’ pass catchers, commanding a 25.7% target share. Pittman was limited by a lack of passing volume on a Colts team ranked top-five in rushing rate (47.3%). Head coach Frank Reich has expressed confidence in his new quarterback, which could lead to a higher passing rate. Ryan has sustained a WR1 in 13 of his 14 career seasons, and Pittman could be next.
Round 4: DJ Moore, WR, Carolina Panthers
DJ Moore hit the ground running last season, finishing as a WR1 in three out of the first four weeks. Unfortunately, he never finished higher than a WR2 for the rest of the season. Moore still had a solid finish to the season with a career-high 93 receptions for 1,157 yards and four touchdowns. It was his third straight season with over 1,100 receiving yards and exactly four touchdowns. Moore displayed WR1 usage, commanding an absurd 28.5% of targets. However, the lack of touchdowns and scoring opportunities has kept Moore from reaching his ceiling. He is a safe option in the middle rounds with massive upside. The Carolina Panthers have been in trade talks with Baker Mayfield, which would boost Moore’s ADP.
Round 5: Brandin Cooks, WR, Houston Texans
Brandin Cooks has been one of the most consistent wide receivers since entering the league in 2015. He has eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards in six seasons while playing for four different teams. Cooks has had a history of concussions and has often been labeled “injury prone.” However, he has only missed three games in the past seven seasons. Although Cooks finished top-10 in target share (26.9%) last season, his numbers were even better with Davis Mills. Cooks averaged ten targets per game with Mills under center as opposed to seven with Tyrod Taylor. He was the WR21 overall and the WR16 in the games started by Mills. Cooks continues to be undervalued, priced outside of the top-24 WRs.
Round 6: Jalen Hurts. QB, Philadelphia Eagles
In his first full season as a starter, Jalen Hurts threw for 3,144 yards and 16 touchdowns, with 784 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. He finished just inside the top-10 QBs (QB9) but had a tale of two seasons. During the first seven weeks of the season, the Eagles implemented an air raid attack, passing nearly 60% of the time. Hurts averaged 34.71 pass attempts and 25 fantasy points per game. After a 2-5 start, the Eagles decided to take the air out of the ball and lean on the ground. As a result, Hurts averaged only 25.1 pass attempts and 18.3 points per game in the final ten games of the season. The Eagles put the league on notice when they traded first- and third-round picks for A.J. Brown. Not long after, they signed Brown to a four-year extension. With the investment Philadelphia made in Brown, it’s hard to imagine they wouldn’t want to get him involved. If Hurts can replicate his production from the first half of the season, he has the chance to finish as the overall QB1.
