Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2022 NFL offseason has been unlike any we’ve had in recent years. The QB movement alone was arguably the most insane we’ve ever seen — and certainly within the last decade.
But not all of it was good. And now that we’ve made it through free agency and the draft, it’s time to take a look at the 2022 offseason’s worst from a fantasy football perspective. (Check out the best offseason moves here.)
Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders
Yuck.
When Aaron Rodgers ended his dance with the Packers and decided to return, Davante Adams returning felt like a shoe-in. Then he requested a trade, and next thing we know, he’s in Vegas.
Yes, this move makes Derek Carr slightly more interesting for fantasy. But it also obliterates the value of both Rodgers and Adams. It’s not an even trade-off in terms of fantasy goodness. This is a downturn no matter how you look at it.
It also hurts an elite TE in Darren Waller, who will almost assuredly lose targets (and end zone targets) to Adams.
Tyreek Hill traded to the Dolphins
Cue the sad piano music.
Gone are the Patrick Mahomes-to-Tyreek Hill bombs. The 75-yard TDs every other week. The 200-yard, multi-TD performances before the first quarter even ended.
Nothing about this move is fun for fantasy. Sorry, Tua stans. But moving Tua Tagovailoa from “deep superflex option” to “pretty deep superflex option” does not offset these losses.
Everything about the Miami Dolphins backfield
Chase Edmonds signed with the Dolphins, and it seemed like he’d maybe get a chance to be an every-down back. For fantasy purposes, this would have been electric.t
Then the team added Raheem Mostert. And Myles Gaskin is still there. Here was the reaction shortly after:
Per the FTN Splits tool, when Edmonds has had at least 15 touches in a game in his career, he has averaged a strong 18 fantasy PPG. He’s at 7 PPG when he doesn’t reach that mark.
Now the entire Miami backfield is a fantasy avoid.
Justin Fields’ ‘supporting cast’
Chicago’s WR depth chart reads like a Madden simulation in the year 2048: Darnell Mooney, Byron Pringle, Velus Jones, Equanimeous St. Brown, Dazz Newsome, David Moore and Cole Kmet.
Maybe they want the first overall pick in the draft next year. Mooney may see over 150 targets with these other “weapons.” It was an outrageously sad free agency and draft for the Bears, who are doing the exact opposite of what the Jets are doing with their 2021 first-round QB in Justin Fields.
Christian Kirk and Zay Jones and Evan Engram to the Jacksonville Jaguars
Listen, I know we wanted to get Trevor Lawrence some help. But this is really not what we had in mind.
Christian Kirk signed a 4-year, $72 million deal that completely broke the WR market and set of a series of a events that saw A.J. Brown traded to the Eagles and Deebo Samuel demand a trade from the 49ers. Thanks for that, Kirk. If he averages $250,000 per catch over the life of this deal, the Jaguars would be lucky.
Lawrence was supposed to be the next Andrew Luck. Maybe he still will be. But the supporting cast is not what we wanted to see.
The Washington Commanders backfield and what it means for Antonio Gibson
Antonio Gibson has the makings of a top-five fantasy RB. He can run, he can catch, he’s good at the goal line, he can break big plays, and he stays on the field (played through a broken shin all of last season).
But the 2022 offseason went wildly wrong for Gibson.
First, the Commanders nearly let J.D. McKissic get away, which would have been incredibly good for Gibson’s fantasy value. But then McKissic returned.
Then the team drafted Brian Robinson on the second day of the draft, giving him legitimate draft capital and serving as a big red flag for Gibson truthers. It may not happen right away, but there’s an easy-to-envision world in which Robinson is the early-down back and McKissic is the pass-catching back, leaving Gibson as nothing more than a change-of-pace player until he escapes Washington.
The Carolina Panthers QB situation
The list of QBs that did something interesting (switch teams, flirt with free agency, etc.) this offseason: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Deshaun Watson, Jameis Winston, Carson Wentz and several other non-starter QBs.
The Panthers QB through it all: Sam Darnold.
But don’t worry! They may still trade for Baker Mayfield, which will definitely make it all better.
