Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
After taking an early look at some potential 2022 sleepers at the tight end position, we now shift our attention to some bust candidates. Because the tight end position can be so tough, finding busts isn’t easy because essentially anyone playing snaps and running routes will be on the fantasy radar at the tight end position.
But here we go.
(Check out more: QB Sleepers | QB Busts | RB Sleepers | RB Busts | WR Sleepers | WR Busts | TE Sleepers)
Hunter Henry, New England Patriots
Last offseason, the Patriots spent a ton of money, especially at the tight end position. They gave Hunter Henry a three-year, $37.5 million deal. After a slow start, the veteran tight end ultimately finished with 50 catches for 603 yards and a whopping nine touchdowns. He tied for the position lead in touchdown grabs, and only Mark Andrews saw more end zone targets among tight ends than Henry (13). Nearly 18% of his targets came in the end zone. It is safe to say that Henry’s touchdown rate is almost certain to come back down in 2022. Outside of touchdowns, the involvement wasn’t too encouraging for Henry, who was 17th among tight ends in targets (74) and receptions (50), only reaching five receptions in four games. The Patriots also gave Jonnu Smith a four-year, $50 million contract last year, and while his usage was head-scratching, you have to think they get him more involved in year two.
Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders
Darren Waller is coming off a down season, while injuries played a factor down the stretch. But the emergence of Hunter Renfrow at wide receiver hurt Waller’s upside a bit, as he saw his targets per game drop from 9.1 to 8.5 in 2021. Opposing defenses deployed bracket coverage against Waller, which helped Renfrow dominate in the middle of the field. Bracket coverage shouldn’t be an issue anymore with Davante Adams in town, but the volume should certainly come down once again. In 2020, Waller led all tight ends with 100 first-read targets, averaging 6.25 per game. With Adams now catching passes from Derek Carr, it’s unlikely Waller comes close to the league-lead in first read targets. He’ll still be a very good fantasy tight end but is no longer a top-three option at the position.
Noah Fant, Seattle Seahawks
Noah Fant goes from a crowded, low-volume passing offense in Denver to… a crowded, low-volume passing offense in Seattle. Oh, and Drew Lock is still likely to be his quarterback. Fant is clearly an immensely talented player, but with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett still there, he projects as, at best, the third option in a Seahawks offense that had no problem establishing the run. And that was with Russell Wilson under center, so imagine how much they will run the football with him gone. While he is still as elite as it gets when it comes to ability after the catch, I worry about Fant’s upside in this offense.
Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins
Mike Gesicki is coming off a solid season. He finished the 2021 campaign fifth among all tight ends with 73 receptions, while he was also fifth in targets (106) and eighth in receiving yards (780). Miami continues to use him as a move tight end/receiver, as Gesicki operated out of the slot about 63% of the time. While I don’t expect him to score just two touchdowns again, I also don’t expect him to see over 100 targets. He is already playing alongside Jaylen Waddle, who was top-10 in first read targets during his rookie season. But now Tyreek Hill is on the team, while the Dolphins also added Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert and Cedrick Wilson. Not to mention DeVante Parker is still on the roster. We could see Gesicki’s snap rate drop this season, which could impact his overall playing time. And while many are expecting a breakout season from Tua Tagovailoa, can he really support two top-20 wide receivers and a top-10 tight end in fantasy?
