Fantasy Baseball Spring Training Roundup (3/6)

Spring training is a wild time for fantasy players, as we see considerable overreactions to tiny sample sizes, changes in player value due to velocity jumps or drops, and other big swings. We aim to cover notable news, value changes, or other important nuggets. We’ve got you covered.

Fantasy Baseball Spring Training Roundup (3/6)

AL East

New York Yankees: Luis Gil (SP, ADP 212), Giancarlo Stanton (UT, 378), DJ LeMahieu (1B/3B, 573) 

All of these guys are hurt. Gil is out a minimum of six weeks, and it could end up being a lot more (a high grade lat strain is not what you want). Stanton and LeMahieu are less clear-cut (and less relevant, given their ADPs) but injured nonetheless. Marcus Stroman (575) is the obvious beneficiary of the Gil news, but he will bludgeon your ratios on his way to picking up some inefficient W’s and K’s — caveat emptor. Will Warren is in the mix for the SP5 spot. Warren has an 11:2 K:BB with just two hits and one earned run allowed in eight innings/three appearances.

Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers (3B, 35)

The Rafael Devers saga continues, and while we expect him to be ready for Opening Day in some capacity, it appears that both mind and body are not right, which is a recipe for poor stats to follow. Devers’ insistence on playing 3B over a much better Alex Bregman when settling into a DH role would be better for his health and also, both the defense and clubhouse dynamic is an unfortunate path. We’ve seen Devers discounted in drafts due to all of the above, but not nearly enough. If there ever was a player going in the first three rounds to take off your board entirely, Devers is as good of a candidate as any.

Baltimore Orioles: Gunnar Henderson (SS, 6), Félix Bautista (RP, 63), Grayson Rodriguez (SP, 103)

Gunnar Henderson is dealing with what is being called a “mild intercostal,” and manager Brandon Hyde has said he is “very, very hopeful” Henderson will be ready for Opening Day. Me too. 

The man they call The Mountain is back, and boy have we missed him. An absolutely devastating and electric arm, Bautista has the stuff to be a top-three closer if given enough opportunity. However, he will likely not have enough opportunity, at least to begin the year, according to Brandon Hyde. They will be easing him into the role, avoiding appearances that would require more than one inning or having him appear in back-to-back games. Early candidates for save opportunities would include Andrew Kittredge, Gregory Soto and Seranthony Domínguez, none of whom would have much increase in value individually due to lack of volume outside of holds leagues.

Grayson Rodriguez adamantly denies anything is wrong physically or mentally, despite being knocked around on 89 MPH fastballs. Proof will be in the pudding in his next outing, I suppose.

Tampa Bay Rays: Drew Rasmussen (SP, 237)

Yet another Rays pitcher coming off injury, Drew Rasmussen was crisp in his spring debut Monday, allowing just 2 baserunners through two innings of work. While he will always be more of a pitch-to-contact type arm, it is good to see him getting work in during early March and having ample time to ramp up to start the season. A reliable source of clean ratios, he makes for a compelling target in the middle rounds. 

AL Central

Cleveland Guardians: Chase DeLauter (OF, 417)

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Chase DeLauter is hurt. This time, he will be missing time to repair a sports hernia. I’m not 100% certain what the point is at which a guy converts from being unlucky to being injury-prone, but DeLauter is at minimum approaching and possibly has exceeded that point. 

Detroit Tigers: Jackson Jobe (SP, 268)

You might think I have this blurb in here just because I want to talk about Jobe, one of my favorite prospects this season, and that would be true. But he also debuted not one but two new pitches in his March 2 start, a sinker (96 MPH I might add) and a curve. There was plenty of hype surrounding Jobe before this but if he successfully implements new pieces to his arsenal, the sky is the limit.

Minnesota Twins: Zebby Matthews (SP, 418)

You’ll find a lot of articles this time of year that are trying to find “this year’s Yelich” and so forth. A previously unknown or lesser-known quantity that can break out in a big way and deliver outsized returns relative to their draft position. It’s not an easy thing to do. One of the ways we can go about doing it though is identifying traits that translate to similar types of productivity. In that context, Zebby Matthews could very well be the next George Kirby. Other than his 37-inning big-league debut last season, he never had a BB% above 4% throughout the minor leagues. If he can also put up even adequate strikeout numbers and continue his spring trend of keeping the ball on the ground (60% GB rate through 5 innings of work), he could return a massive value at this price.

AL West

Texas Rangers: Adolis García (OF, 154)

Yet another Rangers OF has suffered an oblique injury, and despite it being several weeks away, Opening Day is already in question for Adolis García This seems serious, and we’ll need to keep a close eye on what happens next, as an oblique injury on a power/speed guy could do some serious damage. 

Houston Astros: Cam Smith (3B, 721), Christian Walker (1B, 95)

While Isaac Paredes was of course the main get in the Kyle Tucker trade for this year’s Astros, there was no denying the talent of Cam Smith, a mature 22-year-old who was the Cubs’ first-round pick in the 2024 draft. Smith is off to a blistering start in camp, with a comical 1.143 ISO and a .571 average with only 1 K through 11 PAs so far. While making the Opening Day roster would still be ludicrous, we may see him in 2025 if this sort of production keeps up.

Christian Walker was scratched from Wednesday’s start with an oblique strain. This would be a devastating blow to the Astros’ lineup if he is forced to miss regular season time.

Los Angeles Angels: Luis Rengifo (2B/3B, 158), Taylor Ward (OF, 184) 

Usually, an Angels injury update is about Mike Trout being shut down indefinitely or Anthony Rendon being sad, but we get some positive news this time around. Rengifo and Ward, two of the more fantasy-relevant players on the Angels, both received positive health updates that indicated they would be back in the mix soon for spring training. There may be some rust to shake off still, but it’s much better to be doing that in early March than early April. 

NL East

New York Mets: Kodai Senga (SP, 152)

There has to be a healthy starter somewhere in the Mets rotation, and it may come from an unexpected source in this case. Senga was reportedly firing the heat at 96 and mixing his pitches comfortably in his first spring outing, which should be an indicator that he will be built up to a normal starter workload come opening day. This is welcome news for the Mets who need a stabilizing force in their rotation and will need Senga to be their ace from day one. 

Atlanta Braves: Sean Murphy (C, 211)

Sean Murphy fractured his rib and will be out 4-6 weeks, meaning he will start the season on the IL. This is unfortunate for Murphy but an excellent opportunity for Drake Baldwin (539 but about to climb) to show he belongs and is the long-term answer for the Braves. Baldwin should be a positive contributor in AVG as compared to most C-eligible hitters and is probably a 12-15 HR bat if given 500 PAs worth of playing time.

Philadelphia Phillies: Cristopher Sánchez (SP, 173)

While part of my enthusiasm has to do with his lofty expectations for him generally and an affinity for his pitch mix and ground ball heavy approach, the news item here is that he is now sitting 98 with his sinker (in early spring training mind you) whereas last season the same offering was sitting at 94. 

It would stand to reason that if he can maintain a near 60% GB rate (and with his sinker, this seems plausible) while increasing his K% into the 25% range, this would lead to elite ratios and a vaunted SP1-type return. 

NL Central

Chicago Cubs: Matt Shaw (3B, 226)

Matt Shaw had some wind taken out of his sails by an oblique injury that delayed his spring debut a bit, but he came through in a big way Tuesday, with his first 2 hits of the spring and some dazzling defense to boot. He looks to be fully healthy and in a great spot to secure his opening day roster spot, if not a place in the opening day lineup itself. 

St Louis Cardinals: Jordan Walker (OF, 277)

It’s a tough week to be a Walker! While tracking a fly ball in RF, Jordan Walker stepped on a sprinkler head, and it caused enough pain in his knee that he was removed from the game and underwent an MRI to determine the severity of the injury. We are still waiting for that result at press time but will continue to keep you posted on his status.

Cincinnati Reds: Chase Petty (SP, 747)

We always want to be cognizant of the context in which better-than-expected spring performances occur, but in this particular case, it is precisely the context that validates the exciting performance. Petty faced a fully loaded Dodgers lineup that included Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernández, Will Smith and Max Muncy and held his own through three innings, striking out four and allowing just a single run on a solo HR by Betts. 

One might go so far as to say he outdueled all-world prospect Roki Sasaki, who was making his spring debut. Petty, Petty good. For an essentially undrafted asset, Petty is a name worth watching as he could easily (and should) make his MLB debut in 2025.

Milwaukee Brewers: Jose Quintana (SP, 544)

Yes, him. If you were to ask ChatGPT to come up with a pitcher who best fit the definition of what the kids call “mid,” Jose Quintana would likely be one of the names you receive as a response. Yet, he is going to have a rotation spot and should eat some innings and pick up some W’s along the way without destroying your ratios. Best reserved for two start weeks against two favorable matchups, a usable starter in the 36th round is nothing to sneeze at.

NL West

San Diego Padres: Jose Iglesias (2B/3B, 726)

While this is not the most impactful signing for the Padres lineup, there are still takeaways and playing time considerations that the presence of Iglesias will now have an effect on. Eguy Rosario (658) will likely end up with a few fewer PAs as Iglesias fills in within the context of a utility role. 

San Francisco Giants: Jerar Encarnación (OF, 468)

As the blurb points out, Encarnación is tied with Spring Training Roundup darling Matt Gorski with 10 RBIs so far. Encarnación has a much more direct path to regular playing time than Gorski does, as the regular DH role is his to lose at this point. He won’t be platooned either, with Luis Matos sharing the short side of the platoon with Mike Yastrzemski and no real impact LHB bat that would otherwise be coming off the bench. We could be talking about 400-plus PAs and a 20 HR season for Encarnación, which would be an excellent outcome for a player that can be grabbed after Round 30.

Colorado Rockies: Hunter Goodman (C/OF, 337)

The Rockies might not know exactly where Goodman’s bat will end up, but if it keeps scorching like it has so far this spring, they’ll need to find a place for it. His C eligibility despite getting additional playing time either as DH, in the OF or even at 1B gives him the potential to be what everyone wanted 2024 Henry Davis to be — a power-hitting C-eligible weapon you can pick up after the 20th round.