NBA Game of the Day, 2/27: Lakers vs. Timberwolves
Alex Christenson
The draft, free agency, player movement and aging curves all factor into which teams improve or decline from one season to the next, but do you know what can often tell us as much as any of that?
Math.
Before all the offseason transactions, there are some teams we can say with relatively surety will see a big increase or decrease in their fantasy scoring from one year to the next. And the reason for that is that they had seen a big move in the other direction the year before.
From 2006 to 2023, 63 teams improved their fantasy output (PPR scoring, offense only — so QB, RB, WR, TE) by at least 20% from one year to the next. Another 27 went down by at least that amount. That’s 90 teams. Of those 90, 68 (75.6%) went the other way in the third year (improves got worse, decliners got better). So it’s not foolproof, but it is a pretty strong indicator — if a team sees a wild swing in one direction one year, it’s likely going to move in the other direction the next.
This is independent of what those teams do in the offseason. For example: From 2017 to 2018, the Browns, armed with first overall pick Baker Mayfield, saw their fantasy point total climb by 33.0%, from 1116.0 points to 1484.8. Things were looking up, and they were looking up even more when the Browns committed to Nick Chubb as the RB1 and, most importantly, traded for Odell Beckham Jr. before 2019. Mayfield was a top-five fantasy pick, Beckham was supposed to reach new heights, Chubb and Jarvis Landry and David Njoku filled out one of the most exciting offensive units in the league.
In 2019, the Browns’ fantasy scoring dropped by 12.2%.
When everything goes right one year, something goes wrong the next. When everything goes wrong one year, something goes right. A small swing — 5%, 10% — can continue. A big one? Everything we know tells us it’ll go the other way.
So below are the teams most likely to improve in fantasy scoring in 2025. And it’s true no matter what they do this offseason.
Thursday: The teams most likely to decline in 2025.
5 Teams Most Likely to Improve in Fantasy in 2025
Last year, the five teams in this space were the Chiefs, Raiders, Jets, Giants and Chargers. Those five teams declined an average of 14.7% from 2022 to 2023. We hit three of five, with the Giants, Raiders and (especially) the Jets improving. Our misses were the Chargers and Chiefs, and neither declined much — the Chargers went down another 4.0%, in part thanks to the departures of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett, and the Chiefs dropped a paltry 1.8%. If you had followed this guidance, you might have stumbled investing in a Travis Kelce or an Isiah Pacheco, but it might have gotten you to buy in on Malik Nabers or Tyrone Tracy Jr. or Ladd McConkey.
One caveat for this side of things: With point totals generally increasing, fantasy scoring drops are often smaller in the aggregate than the increases, and so the indicators aren’t as strong in this direction. The guidance stays, but the confidence level is slightly (slightly) smaller.
(Reminder: All fantasy scoring is PPR, and offensive players only.)
1. Dallas Cowboys (-19.2%)
2023 fantasy points: 1,694.4 PPR points
2024 fantasy points: 1,368.8
What Went Wrong
It’s probably mean to answer “What Went Wrong” with “LOL,” but that’s kind of the truth for Dallas. Dak Prescott got hurt. Ezekiel Elliott got old (several years ago). Brandin Cooks got hurt. Jake Ferguson went from very relevant fantasy tight end to a guy who was on the football field sometimes. CeeDee Lamb was still excellent, but worse quarterbacking held him back, and he got hurt near the end as well. ‘Twas a mess, it was.
Why They Might Improve
Getting Dak Prescott for more than half a season is the key here, but beyond that, there are worlds of question marks surrounding the Dallas offense in 2025. The only running back on the roster before free agency is Deuce Vaughn. Lamb is still an anchor, but the rest of the receiver room is questionable at very best. The offensive line has more questions than ever. It could be bad in Dallas. But … as long as Prescott and Lamb are healthy, the offense should be more functional than it was.
2. Miami Dolphins (-14.3%)
2023 fantasy points: 1,715.7
2024 fantasy points: 1469.6
What Went Wrong
2023: Tua Tagovailoa QB9, Raheem Mostert RB5, Tyreek Hill WR2, Jaylen Waddle WR34
2024: Tua Tagovailoa QB22, Raheem Mostert RB56, Tyreek Hill WR18, Jaylen Waddle WR46
The answer to “What went wrong” is “Everything but De’Von Achane and Jonnu Smith.” But it started with Tua missing more than a month due to yet another concussion.
Why They Might Improve
It starts with 17 games from Tua. But also, the path involves a rebound from Tyreek Hill (ideally) and/or Jaylen Waddle while Achane and Smith maintain their production. We’ve seen enough from the Dolphins in the past to know that they can pull that off, but with Waddle regressing two years in a row and Hill turning 31 next week, it’s a tough needle to thread.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (-12.5%)
2023 fantasy points: 1,461.2
2024 fantasy points: 1,278.3
What Went Wrong
Trevor Lawrence threw only 11 touchdown passes. Yes, he only played 10 games, but … that’s still just alarmingly terrible. Travis Etienne Jr. all but vanished, Christian Kirk got hurt again, the Gabe Davis signing was a wash. The answer is “Everything but Brian Thomas Jr.”
Why They Might Improve
It’s not necessarily that Doug Pederson was a bad coach, but it was clear his impact in Jacksonville had worn out. Liam Coen just worked wonders on Baker Mayfield, and a new voice in Lawrence’s ear is promising. “Coen with a healthy Lawrence” is enough for the answer to this question.
4. San Francisco 49ers (-12.5%)
2023 fantasy points: 1,671.7
2024 fantasy points: 1,462.8
What Went Wrong
If you’ve noticed a theme in this space, the “What Went Wrong” sections have all been “Geez, everything.” Christian McCaffrey got hurt, came back, got hurt again. Elijah Mitchell got hurt before the season began. Jordan Mason was good for a bit, but he got hurt too. Brandon Aiyuk got hurt. Deebo Samuel Sr. disappeared. It was a mess, and that explains why the NFC’s Super Bowl rep from 2023 finished 6-11 in 2024.
Why They Might Improve
McCaffrey and (eventually) Aiyuk should return, and breakouts from Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall should offset the inevitable departure of Samuel. Unless we think Kyle Shanahan has just lost his mojo, the 49ers will figure things out in 2025.
5. New Orleans Saints (-12.2%)
2023 fantasy points: 1,513.7
2024 fantasy points: 1,328.5
What Went Wrong
Continuing our theme! Derek Carr, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Taysom Hill all got hurt. Kendre Miller got hurt twice. Jamaal Williams scored 17 touchdowns in 2022 in Detroit, but he’s scored twice in 27 games as a Saint the last two years. Alvin Kamara was great as ever (before he also got hurt) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling had an out-of-nowhere pop for a few weeks, but the bright spots were very few and far between in New Orleans.
Why They Might Improve
Given we’re heading into an offseason where we don’t know much of anyone who will be in New Orleans next season, the answer to “Why They Might Improve” is basically just “Because the numbers say so.” Taysom Hill’s likely to be gone, and Derek Carr might as well be too. The team has no money (significantly negative money, in fact) and so can’t really splash around with any high-profile veterans. The Saints do have four picks on the first two days of the draft, but there’s really not much to say here beyond “I dunno, because they should.”
