NBA Best Bets of the Day (1/17)

Welcome to Hoops with Noops! We celebrate this Friday with nine games of NBA action. I’ll admit, these are not the most exciting games given all the injuries and best rest spots. Every team has played about 40 games, which puts us at the halfway point of the season. Players have built up a lot of miles on their bodies and there are consequences. Some squads have also played enough games to feel more confident in their positioning, whether that be securely in the playoffs or securely in the lottery and are making business decisions about the usage of their stars.

There is one game that does stand out and is must-watch TV and in even better news, offers us a wager worth making. Here’s my preview of the Memphis Grizzlies game in San Antonio against the Spurs.

NBA Best Bet for Friday

Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs

Current Line – Grizzlies -2.5, 239
My Projection – Grizzlies 124, 117
Key Injuries – Jeremy Sochan is out. Ja Morant is questionable.

These teams played Wednesday, and the Spurs lost by 14 in a game they led by 12 at halftime. They shot the ball well but lost the possession battle (turnovers+offensive rebounds) by 10. The Spurs have been playing better but remain at just 19-20 with a net rating of -0.6 points per 100 possessions for the season. Hector Banana Bread, aka Victor Wembanyama, has been incredible and shown us he is capable of winning some games on his own. Unfortunately, the rest of the team is lacking in talent and there’s not enough help to get this team to a winning record and above league average net rating. Perhaps there is a trade or move to be made, but for the time being the Spurs are an average team with a high ceiling they rarely attain.

Maybe this is one of those nights when Wembanyama takes over, but the Grizzlies are a much better team at every other position. Ja Morant is questionable but carried that status into last game, when he played, and Morant was at shootaround Friday morning, so I expect him to play. Even if he misses the game, Memphis has a better overall starting lineup and bench. This is the Grizzlies’ final game of four game road trip and the second time in a row playing the Spurs who they beat. That’s generally a tough spot for teams, but Memphis has covered the spread in this situation all season. I make them seven-point favorites if Morant plays and 3.5-point favorites if he can’t. The current spread sits at a cheap -2.5 or a juicy -2. I’d prefer the cheaper -2.5, but both are good wagers. I’ll lay the points with the Memphis Grizzlies.

Bet

Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 (-105, BetMGM/Caesars)

If you have any questions about other games, drop them in the #nba-betting channel of the FTN Discord and tag me @noopschristenson. I’ll be sure to get back to you ASAP.