Divisional Round Betting Breakdown

There’s no better time to get some sports betting action in than the NFL playoffs. Divisional Round bets abound on this weekend’s card. Whether it’s sides and totals or player props, we have you covered here at FTN with our NFL betting models and NFL player props tool. But before we put some wagers in play, it’s important to know a thing or two about each of the four Divisional Round games.

Wild Card Best Bets: 10-8, 1.1 units

Houston @ Kansas City

This is the third playoff meeting between these two franchises. Kansas City won both previous matchups (30-0 in the 2015 Wild Card Round and 51-31 in the 2019 Divisional Round). The Chiefs were also victorious over Houston in the regular season, winning 27-19 in Week 16. Of course, that was also the game the Texans lost Tank Dell for the season.

Despite making it to the Divisional Round five times, the Texans have never made a Conference Championship appearance. They’re the only franchise in league history to never advance beyond the Divisional Round. They’re also the only current franchise without a road playoff win. They’re 0-5 all-time on the road.

But Houston did manage to win in the Wild Card Round for the second straight season. C.J. Stroud and DeMeco Ryans became just the third quarterback-head coach duo to win playoff game in each of their first two seasons. The other two combos: Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh and Mark Sanchez/Rex Ryan. Of course, there’s also a unique backstory to this matchup, as Ryans played for Andy Reid on the 2012 Eagles.

While Stroud wasn’t spectacular in the Wild Card Round, he did post a sold 282 passing yards and a score through the air along with 42 rush yards. He’s now the sixth quarterback all-time with playoff win in each of his first two seasons, the first top-three pick to do so. We also saw a standout performance from the Texans’ top skill position duo of Joe Mixon and Nico Collins. They became the second pair in franchise playoff history with 100-plus rushing yards and 100-plus receiving yds. The only other duo to do so was Arian Foster and Andre Johnson in the Texans’ 2011 Wild Card loss in Baltimore

The 2020s have been all about the Chiefs. The NFL’s latest dynasty could win their eighth straight playoff game in this contest. That would be the third-longest streak all-time behind only the 2001-05 Patriots and the 1960-1967 Packers. A win would also mean a seventh straight Conference Championship appearance. Only the 2011-18 Patriots have a longer streak in league history. Patrick Mahomes also has a shot at his 16th career playoff win, which would tie Joe Montana for second most by starting quarterback all-time.

Speaking of Mahomes, he’s 6-0 in his career in the Divisional Round, with 16 total touchdowns and 0 turnovers. That’s the best record by any quarterback in any playoff round in NFL history. He also averages 302.2 total yards per game in the Divisional Round. In his 18 career playoff games, Mahomes has a 15-3 record with 5,134 passing yards, 41 passing scores and 524 rushing yards. He’s also tossed just eight interceptions over those 18 games. That’s especially interesting because the Texans have accumulated a whopping 23 interceptions in their 18 games played this season.

The Chiefs also have a postseason gamer in Travis Kelce. The future Hall of Famer has the most receptions (165) in NFL playoff history. He also ranks second in receiving yards (1,903) and receiving touchdowns (19). The only player with more? Some guy named Jerry Rice.

In their Week 16 win over the Texans, Kansas City covered as three-point home favorites. The spread for this one is 8.5 as of this writing, which isn’t good news if you want to back the Chiefs. Kansas City is 0-6-1 against the spread when favored by six-plus points this season. However, the Chiefs did win all seven of those games. If the total closes under 43.5, it will be the lowest total in a playoff game that Patrick Mahomes has started. The average closing total in Mahomes’ playoff games is 51.0.

Betting Records This Season

HOU: 8-8-2 against the spread, UNDER is 11-7
KC: 8-9 against the spread, UNDER is 10-7

Projected Score

KC 25.7 – HOU 17.2

Jeff’s Game Pick

Kansas City

Best Bets

Xavier Worthy Over 3.5 Rushing Yards

(-120, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Excluding Week 18, when the Chiefs rested their starters, Worthy has topped this line in each of his last four games. Over that span, he averages 2.25 carries and 13.75 rushing yards per game.

Travis Kelce H2H with Nico Collins 31.5 Receiving Yards

(-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Collins managed 122 yards in the Wild Card Round but posted just 60 against the Chiefs in Week 16. Meanwhile, Kelce is one of the most productive pass catchers in postseason history, with an astounding 86.5 receiving yards per game in the playoffs. Kelce is also interesting for an anytime touchdown at 150. He’s scored 19 times in 22 career postseason games.

Ka’imi Fairbairn Over 6.5 Kicking Points

(-130, FanDuel Sportsbook)

This line is one point higher on other books, so we’ll take the juice here. Fairbairn averaged 8.4 kicking points per game in the regular season and scored seven points against the Chiefs in Week 16.