Fantasy Football Numbers to Know: Week 15

Data plays a massive role in fantasy football. Especially for massive dorks like me who analyze this silly game every single day. And with all of the incredible data we have available at FTN Fantasy, it makes sense to utilize that information to help with fantasy football decisions.

So every Friday, I’ll run through some of my favorite stats for the week, helping you identify some of the best matchups in fantasy football. Be sure to check out the incredible FTN Fantasy StatsHub for a deep dive of all of our in-depth analytics.

Numbers to Know for Fantasy Football Week 15

1. Davante Adams Has a 28% Red Zone Target Share Since Joining the Jets

Since his Jets debut, Adams has been scoring the touchdowns, which isn’t much of a surprise considering who his quarterback is. He has 28% of the team’s red zone targets during that span, seeing a solid six end zone targets. Adams draws a favorable matchup this week with a man coverage-heavy Jaguars secondary that allows the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts. The Jaguars deploy man coverage at a top-10 rate, and Adams has a 29.5% target share against man coverage since Week 7, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. Averaging 2.2 red zone targets per game with the Jets, don’t be surprised if Adams once again makes reservations for six this weekend.

2. Jonathan Taylor Has Accounted for Just 57.9% of Colts Carries Inside the 5-Yard Line with Anthony Richardson

Taylor has mostly been a disappointment in fantasy, and his splits with Richardson under center are interesting. He isn’t seeing stacked boxes because teams have to respect Richardon’s mobility, seeing a stacked front just 11.5% of the time. However, he barely has a 5% target share with Richardson, and the real concern has been the touchdown upside. In games Richardson has started this season, Taylor only has 57.9% of the Colts’ rush attempts inside the 5-yard line. For reference, that number would rank just 14th among all running backs on the season. Richardson, meanwhile, has accounted for 37% of the rush attempts inside the 5-yard line, scoring three rushing touchdowns over his last three games. Taylor’s upside appears to be lower, especially ahead of a matchup with the Broncos, who are allowing an explosive run (10-plus yards) just 9.5% of the time, the third-best rate in football.

3. Zach Charbonnet Is Averaging 21.7 Career PPR Points Per Game without Kenneth Walker III

There have been five games since the start of last season where Walker has been sidelined. During those contests, Charbonnet has been stellar, averaging 17.4 carries, 74 rushing yards, 4.4 targets, 4.0 receptions, 31.2 receiving yards, 21.4 touches and nearly 22 fantasy points per game. His fantasy finishes during those five starts? RB1, RB8, RB7, RB29 and RB13. Walker is looking very questionable to play Sunday night, which means Charbonnet would once again be in line for 80% of the snaps and 20-25 touches against a Green Bay defense you can certainly run on.

4. A.J. Brown Is 4th in Yards per Route Run Against Single-High Defense (3.5)

The Philadelphia passing attack has been under the microscope lately despite the fact that the team keeps winning. Brown has been relatively quiet, mainly because the Eagles aren’t throwing the ball very much. The Eagles comfortably lead the league in neutral-script rush rate (53.7%), and Jalen Hurts hasn’t attempted 30 passes in a game since Week 4. This is a great spot for Brown, however, as well as a potential squeaky wheel scenario. Brown is top-five in yards per route run against single-high this season (3.5), while also ranking seventh in EPA/TGT (0.81) and third in receiving yards per game (55.6). The Steelers, meanwhile, run single-high coverage 61.4% of the time, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.

5. Rico Dowdle Is 12th Among RBs in PPR Points per Game Since Week 12 (16.4)

Dowdle has been very productive over the past three weeks, ranking sixth in yards per carry (5.6), fourth in carries (59), 12th in fantasy points per game (16.4), sixth in yards after contact per attempt (3.5), eighth in success rate (45.8%) and seventh in explosive rush rate (15.3%). The Cowboys have finally started to steer away from 40-plus Cooper Rush dropbacks each week, instead giving Dowdle around 20 touches per game. He is in a great position to keep it going this week, facing a Carolina defense allowing the highest rushing success rate (48.5%) and most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields this season.