NFL Splits Tool, Week 15: Carr Won’t Start

Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to evaluate different teams, monitoring some of the most critical situations around the league.

The Splits Tool is a great way to evaluate the impact of different situations and environmental factors by comparing and contrasting historical data based on pre-game spreads/totals, locations, coaching changes, current and former teammates, etc. It’s a must-have for serious fantasy football managers and sports betters, especially when it comes to making difficult start/sit decisions or trying to gain an edge against the books.

Derek Carr Down and Out

2024 looked like a lost season for the Saints, but they’ve had quite the turnaround since moving on from Dennis Allen, winning three of their last four games with an outside shot of making the postseason. They’ll likely need to win out to make the playoffs, but even that might not be enough to close the gap with only four games remaining.

The team has had success under Darren Rizzi, but they could be without Derek Carr for an undisclosed amount of time, who came out of Sunday’s game with a fractured wrist and a concussion. Even if Carr can return before the end of the season, he’s unlikely to suit up this upcoming week, which would promote either Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler as the starter. The offense functioned a lot differently when Carr missed time earlier this season, but still featured a heavy dose of Alvin Kamara.

Alvin Kamara, RB

Alvin Kamara has been one of the lone bright spots for the Saints’ having himself a career year in what looks to be a lost season. No player has been a larger focal point of his respective offense than Kamara this season, who leads the NFL in both opportunity share (37.8%) and touch share (44.8%), averaging 23.6 combined carries and targets for 109.5 yards from scrimmage. As great as Kamara has been, he’s been a much different player without Carr in the lineup, seeing significantly less work on the ground and far less efficient with his touches. However, he did see an uptick in usage as a receiver, seeing 8.7 targets per game with a combination of Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener under center, leading the team with a 19% target share during that span. It’s fair to temper expectations for Kamara as we enter the fantasy playoffs, but it’s hard to push him too far down based on his projected volume alone.