Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Week 5 brings bye week mayhem and a fantasy football landscape ripe with opportunity. But fear not, my “10 Things” is your weekly dose of fantasy wisdom, helping you make those tough decisions and dominate your league. Let’s dive in.
1. Bijan a ‘Bust’? Don’t Be Ridiculous!
Yes, Bijan Robinson has failed to score more than 16.2 fantasy points in a game in 2024 and is coming off a season-low 64% snap percentage. But pushing past the surface-level box score stats, things still look encouraging. He’s handled 20-plus touches in the prior three games, and despite just 11 touches in Week 4, Robinson still scored 11.4 fantasy points. He led the Falcons with a 1.9 yards per route run (a season-high), which could have been higher if not for a (weak) holding call that nullified a 19-yard touchdown reception.
All of the Falcons’ first four opponents rank inside the top 10 for toughest matchups for running backs, according to our DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points. Keep an eye on practice reports. The reduced touches were reportedly due to a hamstring issue, and Atlanta plays Tampa Bay Thursday night. I wouldn’t be surprised to see his snaps limited again. I am more than willing to admit when I’m wrong (as you’ll see below), but calling Bijan Robinson a bust is beyond ludicrous. If you can get him at any sort of discount, make the move. RB1 overall on the season is still very much in play.
2. Pierce Says ‘More Mattison’ — Is This the Year He Finally Breaks Out?
I touched on how poorly Zamir White had been this season, and surprisingly, that trend continued in Week 4.
White was once again outperformed by Alexander Mattison and even embarrassingly by Tyreik McAllister. Mattison had just five carries, but three went for at least 10 yards. His expected points added was 4.17, compared to -0.64 for White. After the game, Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce said Mattison “deserves more reps, and he’ll get them.” FTN’s Scott Spratt agrees, pointing out White has a -57.0% rushing DVOA (worst among RBs with at least 25 carries) compared to Mattison’s 14.5%. He’s not a league winner by any means, but we’ve seen the flashes of talent from Mattison before. If he inherits most of the Raiders’ backfield touches, he’ll offer fantasy viability on volume alone. Available in over 50% of Sleeper redraft and 60% of Yahoo leagues; add Mattison if he’s still available in yours.
3. Don’t Dump Dell!
Tank Dell is one of the bigger disappointments to start this fantasy season, totaling a mere 99 yards on nine catches and no touchdowns through Week 3 (Dell missed Week 4 due to a chest injury). But his slow start has led to underestimating what he can provide and being flat-out dropped in some places. He leads Houston in yards per reception (11.0), average depth of target (11.5 yards), a higher aDOT than the likes of Xavier Worthy, Malik Nabers and Texans teammate Nico Collins. In the three games he’s been on the field, Dell leads the Texans in first down targets (13), and C.J. Stroud targeted his first read 50% of the time in those games. There’s no denying Collins is the WR1 on this team, and Stefon Diggs has served as the WR2 so far. But it’s closer than most realize. While I never thought Dell would return the value of his preseason ADP inside the top 50 or so picks, the pendulum has swung too far in the opposite direction.
4. Patience, Young Padawan: Coleman’s Force Is Awakening
It’s a tale as old as time. Rookie wide receiver doesn’t perform out of the gate, is immediately called a bust. Keon Coleman saw just a single target in Weeks 2 and 3 and has failed to hit double-digit fantasy points in a game this season. But the Buffalo rookie bounced back encouragingly in Week 4, catching three of his four targets to match his Week 1 total of 51 receiving yards. Admittedly, the stats aren’t stunning, but the formula is there for more productive games in the coming weeks.
Coleman’s 20-yard average depth of target led the Bills and was the fifth-highest in the league among wide receivers who saw three or more targets Week 4, per the FTN StatsHub. He’s on the field a ton as well, with the highest snap percentage in three of the four games Buffalo has played, and has run more routes on the season than Khalil Shakir. I still see Coleman as third in the pecking order behind Shakir and Dalton Kincaid, but I want anybody Josh Allen is throwing the football to regularly on my fantasy teams. With bye weeks approaching and the Bills not until Week 12, Coleman should be rostered everywhere and is a viable flex play with boom potential.
5. Legette-imate Threat: Carolina’s Rookie WR Is No Joke
After an hamstring injury late in Week 3 landed Adam Thielen on injured reserve, he will remain out until Week 8 at a minimum. That led to a bump in playing time for rookie wide receiver Xavier Legette, who made the most of his newfound opportunity. Legette scored his first touchdown and set personal bests in targets, receptions and yards for his four-game career. Diontae Johnson has been and will likely remain the top target in this offense, regardless of whether it’s Andy Dalton or Bryce Young under center. But Legette caught six passes on 10 targets and was the only other Carolina receiver to see an end zone target. Legette’s a flex play as long as Thielen is out and could graduate to WR3 status if he continues to see a target volume close to double digits.
6. Charbonnet the Bridesmaid with Walker Around
With Kenneth Walker III out of the lineup in Weeks 2 and 3, Zach Charbonnet totaled 179 all-purpose yards on 32 carries, eight catches on nine targets, and scored three touchdowns. With Walker back in Week 4 … Charbonnet did see five targets but just two carries. It’s disappointing to see him shoved to the back seat with Walker active, but that’s been the case his entire career.
Per the FTN Splits Tool, Charbonnet has played in 16 games with Walker, averaging 6.3 PPR points per game. But in the four he’s played without him, Charbonnet’s PPG more than doubles to 17.6. Sadly, I wouldn’t consider Charbonnet even a flex play while he’s stuck backing up Walker. But do not drop him. He’s proven he can handle the heavy workload and is one of the highest-value handcuffs in all of fantasy.
7. Perine? Nope. Hunt? Meh. CEH? Maybe?
This is the part where I admit I was wrong. Samaje Perine will not be the running back in the Chiefs offense you want in Isiah Pacheco‘s absence. But don’t get too excited about Kareem Hunt‘s couch-to-field fantasy resurrection; I expect it to be short-lived.
Hunt averaged 4.9 yards per carry on 14 attempts but hasn’t had a YPC above four since 2021. It was an anemic average of 3.0 last season, lower than the soon-to-return Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Overall, I’m avoiding the Chiefs backfield. I stand by my take in Week 3’s edition of “10 Things” that it will be an ugly, frustrating timeshare. But scope out the wire and see if CEH is out there. I don’t expect much of anything from him, but he’s a worthy end-of-bench stash just in case.
8. Don’t Overreact — Hurts Is Still a Top-Tier Fantasy Asset
A cluster of fantasy analysts and managers alike think we’ve seen the best of Jalen Hurts and no longer view him as a potential top-three option. If one of those managers is in your league, take advantage and make a move for him. Hurts has yet to produce high-end numbers like in past seasons, but he’s still among the top 10 options. There’s been plenty working against him as well. Week 1 was an international game in Brazil, and he lost A.J. Brown to injury. DeVonta Smith suffered a concussion in Week 3 and didn’t play in Week 4. Hurts is learning a new offense under Kellen Moore and playing with a new center for the first time in his career after Jason Kelce‘s retirement. An early bye week can often be seen as a negative, but it’s precisely what the Hurts and the Eagles need right now. Smith is expected back in Week 6, and there’s hope Brown could return as well. If you can get any sort of discount on Jalen Hurts, make the move. He’s still an elite fantasy (and NFL) quarterback.
9. Chubb’s Comeback: Sell Now, Avoid the Uncertainty
One of my favorite pastimes in fantasy is trading away players returning from injury or suspension right before they make it back on the field. Nick Chubb returned to the practice field this week after the Browns opened his practice window. The hype is rising surrounding his return, the perfect time to sell. Chubb has been a fantasy mainstay for many years but still has a rather large mountain before him to return to that peak. Chubb’s return is near, but there’s a surplus of uncertainty surrounding his potential production. He’ll most assuredly be eased into action, and there is a wide range of outcomes for what Chubb can do on the field after returning from another catastrophic knee injury. The backfield is also slightly more crowded this season, and he’ll share work with Jerome Ford and D’Onta Foreman. Mitigate the risk and sell Chubb to someone who believes he’ll return to form. Is it possible he does? Sure. But sadly, it’s just as possible he’ll never be the same.
10. The Other WR Defying the Giants’ Offensive Ineptitude
Despite the Giants’ offense being laughably bad, with Daniel Jones tossing lame ducks and underthrowing wide-open receivers, a second viable fantasy option has emerged at wide receiver. Wan’Dale Robinson has scored double-digit fantasy points in three of four games and is averaging nearly 10 targets a game. His ceiling is capped, as the Giants offense runs through Malik Nabers. Robinson is playing less than 70% of snaps. But he’s turned into a PPR cheat code, thanks to the volume he’s seeing. Nabers had yet to return to practice as of Wednesday after suffering a concussion late against the Cowboys in Week 3. If Nabers is out, Robinson’s volume will likely see additional targets. He’s a weekly flex start in PPR leagues who’s available in most leagues.
That’s all she wrote for this week’s “10 Things”! Appreciate you reading. “Dynasty Moves to Make” is coming at you Friday, and as always, feel free to slide into my DMs on Twitter/X with any fantasy football questions. May all your teams eat a W this week!
