Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Remember those preseason fantasy football rankings we all meticulously crafted? Yeah, about those…
But when injuries wreak havoc, the savvy fantasy manager sees opportunity. Chaos? Uncertainty? Bring it on. My Week 3 “10 Things” is here to guide you through the madness and help you come out of it all even better.
1. Braelon Allen Emerges, Breece’s RB1 Hopes Dented
After seeing just two touches in Week 1, Braelon Allen’s involvement saw a modest bump in Week 2. He made the most of them, turning seven carries and four targets into 33 rushing yards, two catches for 23 yards, and, most importantly, two touchdowns. Take these stats with a hearty helping of hold your horses, but with Hall, Allen has some impressive numbers.
- Hall: 30 carries, 4 avoided tackles, 2 explosive runs, 2 red zone carries
- Allen: 8 carries, 5 avoided tackles, 1 explosive run, 1 red zone carry
This is still Breece Hall’s team. He’s been on the field 17 of 19 third-down snaps and 75% of total snaps. But interestingly enough, when the Jets were trailing in Week 2, Allen played one more snap:
I’m not suggesting that Allen will overthrow Hall for the top spot in the Jets running back hierarchy. However, Allen does have the talent to carve out a regular role in the offense, capping Hall’s RB1 overall ceiling.
2. Nabers’ Dominance: Target Monster and Top-10 Potential
The Giants are terrible, and Daniel Jones might have the worst contract in NFL history, but none of that matters to Malik Nabers. He’s entirely QB-proof and ate in Week 2. Nabers more than doubled his target total of seven from Week 1 to a whopping 18 in Week 2 (62% target share). His 4.9 yards per route run was the fourth most among wide receivers who ran at least 20 routes, and he is in the top five in targets, receptions and yards per game through two games. His 193 receiving yards through his first two career games is 12th by a player in NFL history. Despite the Giants’ struggles, Nabers is a must-start regardless of format and has a viable path to finishing as a top-10 fantasy receiver.
3. Downgrade Dolphins Without Tua
First and foremost, the health of Tua Tagovailoa means more than anything. But we do have to consider his absence in this game about a game we obsess over. Using the FTN Splits Tool, I took a peek at Jaylen Waddle’s and Tyreek Hill’s numbers with and without Tagovailoa under center. (I filtered Hill’s stats to only his time in Miami). Unsurprisingly, the numbers are ugly.
Targets and receptions stay about the same for both, but yardage, touchdowns and fantasy points take a significant hit. Waddle drops 4.7 points and Hill drops a whopping 6.66 per game in PPR scoring without Tua under center. This is an unprecedented situation; we have no idea when Tagovailoa will return, if at all. He’s out a minimum of four games after being placed on the IR. All factors considered, I’d consider selling low on Hill and Waddle. Their ceiling and floors have both dropped dramatically, and I’d be willing to gamble, but it stays that way for the duration of the season.
4. Chiefs’ Backfield Chaos
With Isiah Pacheco out for six-plus weeks, who the heck is the Chiefs running back we want in fantasy? I’m not bothering with Kareem Hunt. He’s had a productive past, but he’s washed up. His prowess in pass protection could lead him to see the field, but the chances are slim for any actual fantasy production. Undrafted free agent rookie Carson Steele has seemed the most hype, but I’m not sold. Steele likely sees the early down work and could have a few boom weeks if talks of him holding the goal-line role prove true. He had a costly fumble in Week 2 that kept the Bengals in the game and is averaging an ugly 3 yards per carry. Samaje Perine checks the most boxes and was already on track to slide into the Jerick McKinnon role — he excels in pass protection, has just four career fumbles (two last season and two in his rookie season) and runs the ball well enough to handle the heavy side of a committee. I see this becoming an ugly, frustrating timeshare but Perine is the back I want most in PPR and half-PPR scoring formats.
5. Don’t Overthink It — Robinson’s the Answer
Who the heck is the Rams wide receiver we want in fantasy? (déjà vu). With Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp both set to miss extended time (although Kupp has yet to be placed on the IR), the Rams WR corps has thinned out tremendously. There’s upside with Jordan Whittington and Tyler Johnson, but the answer is Demarcus Robinson, and it’s not remotely close. He finished 2023 on a heater, averaging 13.3 points on seven targets per game with a healthy Nacua and Kupp. He’s already been involved this season and currently sits second in targets (11), average depth of target (12.1) yards, first in snap percentage, yards per reception (15.3), and tied with Tyler Johnson for the most red zone targets among Rams wide receivers. Don’t overthink it. Robinson is the easy call.
6. Don’t Panic on Amari Cooper
It’s been a rough start to the season, but better days are ahead for Amari Cooper. Although he has had a total of five catches for 27 yards through two games, he’s averaging 8.5 targets per game and an average depth of target of 14.3 yards. A mouthwatering matchup with the New York Giants is on tap.
The Giants are giving up 8.2 passing yards per attempt, and Cooper has the fifth-easiest WR/CB matchup. He could boom in a big way in Week 3; don’t give up on Cooper yet. If he falls flat yet again, then you have permission to panic.
7. Carr & Co.: Start ‘Em All Against Philly
It might be an early-season surprise to you, but the Saints hot start isn’t one to FTN’s Aaron Schatz. You could write off Week 1 as a fluke against an abysmal Panthers team, but the Saints’ dismantling of Dallas is Jerry World has me fully bought in on Derek Carr’s resurrection, and StatsHub agrees. Carr’s 77% completion percentage, 3.6% checkdown rate and 11.4 yards per attempt (third highest in the NFL) have helped lead the Saints to the top of the DVOA standings.
Carr is doing this despite averaging the fewest passing attempts per game and a 39% pressure rate (fourth worst). A matchup with Philly brings a defense that ranks 31st in defensive DVOA (25th in pass) and is susceptible to big plays, allowing the third-most completions of 20-plus yards (5). Start Carr, Rashid Shaheed and all your New Orleans players. The Saints are for real.
8. Trevor Lawrence’s New Favorite Target
One of my favorite late-round picks this season was Jags rookie wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr., and he’s had a tremendous start to his career. Among receivers with a minimum of 20 route runs, Thomas ranks inside the top 10 in yards per route run (3.1), yards per target (17.6), and yards per reception (23.5). His 15-yard average depth of target is the second highest on the team, and he has quickly become Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target. Thomas could be one of the best values in all of fantasy this season, and I expect him to continue to produce. If anybody is selling high in your leagues, buy, buy, buy.
9. Is Quentin Johnston’s Really Chargers’ WR1?
Quentin Johnston (yes, really) has emerged as the most productive Chargers wide receiver so far this season. Johnston is tied with rookie receiver Ladd McConkey for the team lead with 11 targets and holds the top spot for yards per route run (2.2), per target (8.1), per reception (11.1) and total touchdowns with two.
But remember, this is a Jim Harbaugh offense. The Chargers are a run-first team through and through, throwing the ball on just 40.3% of plays, the third lowest in the league according to the FTN’s Pace tool. QJ should be rostered in all formats, but keep your expectations in check.
10. Henry’s Still the King, Hill’s the PPR Prince
Say goodbye to the dream of Derrick Henry getting 300-plus carries in the Baltimore offense. He’ll still put up solid numbers and plenty of touchdowns, but Justice Hill caps his upside similar to the Breece Hall/Braelon Allen situation.
Hill has played slightly more snaps in each of the Raven’s first two games, 96% of third downs, and all the two-minute drill snaps. Henry has out-touched him overall 32-13, but Hill has been close to as efficient with 4.0 yards per carry to Henry’s 4.2. King Henry will remain the lead back in the Ravens’ offense, but Hill offers flex viability in PPR with five targets per game and, surprisingly, some red zone carries. He’s a worthy stash, especially with bye weeks not too far off). Ravens head coach John Harbaugh wasn’t just spewing coach speak this offseason; Justice Hill has a genuine role in the Ravens offense.
Thanks for joining me for another edition of “10 Things.” I appreciate you taking the time to read. Remember, “Dynasty Moves to Make” is coming your way Friday, and I’m always available on Twitter/X for your fantasy football questions.
