Wild Card Weekend NFL Moneyline Underdogs

Welcome to the 2024 NFL playoffs. The Wild Card Round promises incredible drama with six huge NFL games scheduled throughout Saturday and Sunday.

I’m going to stay away from the biggest spreads on the schedule, backing the Bills and Cowboys to advance to the Divisional Round next week. That leaves four juicy choices for a nice underdog payday.

Throughout the season, I have given you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. Let’s take a look at my favorite moneyline underdog for Wild Card weekend.

Wild Card Round NFL Moneyline Underdogs

Los Angeles Rams +3.5 at Detroit Lions

(+152, FanDuel Sportsbook)

The scene is set for a classic revenge game battle for Matthew Stafford at Detroit. Stafford was traded to the Rams after the 2020 season. The Lions decided it was time for a full rebuild, and Stafford was looking for the elusive Super Bowl title. It was an amicable separation that has clearly worked well for both sides. The Rams and Stafford won the Super Bowl in his first year with the Rams, while the Lions won the NFC North title for the first time in 30 years. The Rams enter this game as just a 3.5-point underdog, with a very reasonable path for an upset.

The Rams offense is again elite, ranking seventh in offensive DVOA after finishing 25th last season. Over the second half of the season, the Rams actually ranked third best in offensive DVOA, trailing only San Francisco and Green Bay.

Los Angeles has been superb since their bye week, winning seven of eight games. Their only loss was in overtime at Baltimore. Detroit’s defense has struggled, especially against the pass. Detroit is ranked first in run defense DVOA, but is only 16th against the pass, and has been blowtorched by opposing WR1s, especially the last two weeks. The Lions allowed 13 receptions, 227 yards and a touchdown to CeeDee Lamb in Week 17, and 24 receptions, 333 yards and two touchdowns combined to Justin Jefferson in Weeks 16 and 18.

Detroit will also have to potentially play without two key offensive players in Sam LaPorta and Kalif Raymond. LaPorta suffered a hyperextended knee and bone bruise in the Lions Week 18 victory over Minnesota, and Raymond left with a knee injury also. Both are questionable for Sunday’s matchup with the Rams.

Los Angeles head coach Sean McVay has thrived in these situations, carrying a 12-5-2 (70.6%) ATS record as a three-point or greater road underdog. In the postseason, McVay is 3-1 ATS, with three outright victories. I’m backing the Rams as my ML underdog play for Wild Card weekend.