Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! It’s not a TNT Tuesday, but maybe one of these Tuesdays it will be. Instead of watching the best studio show in all of sports, we’ll have to resort to NBATV and local broadcast crews through NBA League Pass. The good news is that we have five games that may not be the most interesting matchups, but should teach us a lot about some teams and give us a chance to attack some bad numbers in the sports betting market.
We’ve got a lot of teams playing Tuesday that just lost their best player for the season, look much better due to recent trade and/or are in great situations to play their best basketball. If you’re a loyal Hoopser with Noops (Hoops with Noopser just sounds weird) you know that I generally only have two or three bets even on nights with 10-plus games. Well, Tuesday is going to be a change of pace because I have five bets over five games. Let’s dive in and see where they might be.
NBA Best Bets for Tuesday
Minnesota Timberwolves at Orlando Magic
Current Line – Timberwolves -5.5, 217
My Projection – Timberwolves 112, Magic 109
Key Injuries – Franz Wagner is out.
One of the hardest things to do when handicapping the NBA is figuring out how one player impacts a team. Franz Wagner is the most important player for the Orlando Magic, and without him they are a much different team. Offensively, Wagner plays the role of point-forward meaning a guard may bring the ball up the floor, but it then goes to Wagner, who initiates the action and passes the ball to the right spot. Without him, the Magic offense is less efficient, but it does move faster. It takes time to get the ball to Franz Wagner and without him, that time can be spent beginning the attack sooner. Playing faster also benefits a team without it’s best playmaker. My picking up the pace, teams have a better chance of facing a defense that is not set and ready for the attack. Defensively, Wagner is a big player that moves well and generally takes more responsibility on that end of the floor than other Orlando players. Put that all together and I expect the Magic to be a better over team even though their offense will be less efficient without Wagner. The increase in pace and drop in deficiency will overcome the drop in offensive efficiency. Their Tuesday opponent, the Minnesota Timberwolves, play in Boston Wednesday, which could mean they try to slow the pace themselves to conserve energy for the Celtics, but I expect the opposite. The Timberwolves have generally played at the pace of their opponents on the road so I think they’ll play fast if the Magic do as well. All of this has me excited to be the over in this game and I’m doing just that.
Bet
Minnesota Timberwolves/Orlando Magic Over 217 (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Portland Trail Blazers at New York Knicks
Current Line – Knicks -12, 229
My Projection – Knicks 120, Trail Blazers 105
Key Injuries – Mitchell Robinson is out. Deandre Ayton is doubtful.
If you’ve read this piece before, you will not be surprised by the next few sentences. The New York Knicks, like all Tom Thibodeau teams, crush bad teams and the Portland Trail Blazers are a bad team. In New York’s games against the San Antonio Spurs, Charlotte Hornets, Washington Wizards and Detroit Pistons, the Knicks have won by an average of 17.7 points and allowed an average of 103.8 points per game. Thibodeau expects the most his team can give him every night, regardless of the opponent. Often times, better teams don’t take bad teams seriously and give up margin in the fourth quarter that may not matter to them, but cost bettors money by losing the cover with just a few minutes left in the game. Tuesday, the Knicks face the Portland Trail Blazers who profile as one of these bad teams. Portland has a roster full of young players not quite ready to win at the NBA level and veterans hoping to be traded to a team with a chance at make a deep run into the postseason. The Trail Blazers are playing their fifth game of a seven-game road trip and most recently won a grueling, overtime game against Brooklyn. It should be a down spot for Portland and a great spot for the Knicks to win by a lot. Everything adds up to a comfortable New York victory and a low scoring night for Portland. I have the Knicks by 15 points, so I’ll happily lay the 12 current available and I’m also going to play a Trail Blazers team total under 108.5
Bets
New York Knicks -12 (-112, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Portland Trail Blazers Team Total Under 108.5 (-118, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Memphis Grizzlies at Dallas Mavericks
Current Line – Mavericks -8, 235
My Projection – Mavericks 126, Grizzlies 113
Key Injuries – Dereck Lively and Ja Morant are out.
The Memphis Grizzlies had hope. Ja Morant was playing, the Grizzlies were winning, and the bottom of the Western Conference was opening up for them. Unfortunately, that’s all over now that Morant will miss the rest of the season due to shoulder surgery. Losing a star player is obviously bad for a team, but there is often a bump in performance in their first game without that star. Maybe it’s the team playing harder because they know they have to or the market being bad at adjusting for one player, but teams in that first game do well against the spread. That first game without Morant was Sunday night when the Grizzlies beat the Phoenix Suns. Tuesday, Memphis faces a Mavericks team that is better than they are in just about every way you can imagine. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have played well together and despite injuries to key secondary players, the Mavericks are winning their division and forming into a dark horse contender to make the Western Conference Finals, possibly the NBA Finals. It will be their fourth consecutive game at home and I love backing teams that have had time to get comfortable in their home arena. I project them to win by 13 points and score 126 points tonight. They’re not quite the Knicks, but they too have been dominant against bad teams and this version of the Grizzlies certainly counts. I’ll lay the eight points with Dallas as well as play their team total over 121.5, or even 122.5, points.
Bets
Dallas Mavericks -8 (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Dallas Mavericks Team Total Over 121.5 (-118, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Sacramento Kings at Detroit Pistons +11.5, 241.5
Just when you didn’t think the Pistons could get any worse, they are without Cade Cunningham. Are you really interested in putting your hard earned on money on a wager of the Detroit Pistons plus only 11.5 points? I’m for one, am surely not about that life. At the same time, the Kings play in Detroit Tuesday and in Charlotte Wednesday, which means it would behoove them to play slow and rest their best players if they have a lead late in the game. That means the backdoor could be wide open for something silly like Marcus Sasser making a meaningless three pointer at the buzzer to cut the Sacramento lead down to just 11 points. Have I made this sound bad enough? I really hope I have, because you really shouldn’t bet on this mess of a basketball game.
Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Lakers -5, 232
I am very close to a bet on the Raptors in some fashion and I’ll be sure to put it in the FTNBets Discord #nba-plays channel if/when that happens. Toronto looks like a new team with Immanuel Quickley. He is exactly the guard they needed to open up space on offense and allow Scottie Barnes to be his best. The Raptors have averaged 126.3 points per game since getting Quickley, and I think they can score 120-plus again Tuesday, but they have to play again Wednesday night as well, and teams tend to play slower in game one of a back-to-back spot. The Lakers are in the middle of a long homestand and have the pieces to defend Toronto. I’m definitely not betting the Lakers even though they finally won a game, but I’m just not quite there yet on backing Toronto.
