Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tony PollardRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Eagles vs. Cowboys
Right now, Tony Pollard’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 53.5 (-133) after it opened @ 53.5 (-119).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast Tony Pollard to earn 16.2 carries in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
- After accounting for 41.6% of his offense’s carries last year, Tony Pollard has been called on more in the run game this year, now sitting at 62.7%.
- With an exceptional tally of 66.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (88th percentile), Tony Pollard ranks among the best pure rushers in football this year.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Cowboys offensive strategy to tilt 4.9% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
- A throwing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a -3-point underdog in this week’s contest.
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to run on 40.0% of their chances: the 9th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- At the present time, the 8th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Dallas Cowboys.
- Opposing squads have rushed for the fewest adjusted yards in football (just 64.0 per game) vs. the Eagles defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Rushing Yards
72
Rushing Yards
