Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Eagles vs. Cowboys
Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Eagles feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may decline.
- With an exceptional 87.8% Route Participation% (100th percentile) this year, Dallas Goedert rates among the tight ends with the biggest workloads in football.
- In this contest, Dallas Goedert is forecasted by the predictive model to place in the 93rd percentile among tight ends with 6.1 targets.
- When it comes to air yards, Dallas Goedert ranks in the lofty 87th percentile among tight ends this year, totaling a massive 31.0 per game.
Cons
- A running game script is indicated by the Eagles being a 3-point favorite in this week’s game.
- At the moment, the 6th-slowest paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Eagles.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: fewest in football.
- Dallas Goedert’s 44.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year illustrates a noteworthy regression in his pass-catching ability over last year’s 58.0 mark.
- Dallas Goedert’s 73.6% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a meaningful decline in his receiving skills over last year’s 80.2% mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards
47
Receiving Yards
