Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Chiefs vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 93.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 93.5 (-110) after it opened @ 92.5 (-114).
Pros
- The projections expect the Dolphins to be the 4th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- In this contest, Tyreek Hill is projected by the projection model to place in the 99th percentile when it comes to WRs with 12.4 targets.
- Tyreek Hill has been in the 99th percentile for WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) with a superb 80.5 figure this year.
- Tyreek Hill’s 118.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season indicates a noteable improvement in his pass-catching prowess over last season’s 92.0 figure.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Dolphins offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 28.74 seconds per play.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.
- Tyreek Hill has notched far fewer air yards this year (124.0 per game) than he did last year (131.0 per game).
- The Chiefs pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (59.4%) to wide receivers this year (59.4%).
- This year, the stout Chiefs defense has allowed the 6th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing wideouts: a puny 7.3 yards.
Projection
THE BLITZ
121
Receiving Yards
121
Receiving Yards
