Week 9 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Josh Jacobs from EV Insight

Josh JacobsRushing Yards

Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (+100/-137).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 74.5 (-137) after it opened @ 75.5 (-117).

Pros

At the present time, the 6th-most run-focused team in the league (41.8% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Raiders.
The predictive model expects Josh Jacobs to accumulate 20.1 carries in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
Josh Jacobs has been given 79.4% of his offense’s carries this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
As it relates to executing run-blocking assignments (and the importance it has on all run game stats), the O-line of the Raiders grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL last year.
The Giants defense owns the 6th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, conceding 4.88 adjusted yards-per-carry.

Cons

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Las Vegas Raiders are forecasted by the predictive model to run only 60.4 offensive plays in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.
The smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Raiders this year (a lowly 52.9 per game on average).
The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
Josh Jacobs has run for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (52.0) this year than he did last year (100.0).
Josh Jacobs’s 3.2 adjusted yards per carry this season shows a substantial decline in his rushing skills over last season’s 5.0 figure.

Projection

THE BLITZ
87
Rushing Yards