NFL

Bets

November 2, 2023

Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Mac Jones from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Mac JonesPassing Yards

Right now, Mac Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 222.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 222.5 (-110) after it opened @ 218.5 (-114).

Pros

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Patriots are expected by the projection model to call 65.5 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game versus the Commanders defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
Mac Jones’s throwing precision has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 64.5% to 68.6%.
Opposing teams have passed for the 4th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (268.0 per game) versus the Washington Commanders defense this year.
This year, the porous Washington Commanders defense has yielded the 2nd-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing offenses: a staggering 8.76 yards.

Cons

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 55.7% of their plays: the 6th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
The Patriots O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
230
Passing Yards