Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Alexander MattisonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Falcons vs. Vikings
Right now, Alexander Mattison’s rushing yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-104/-131).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 41.5 (-131) after it opened @ 51.5 (-119).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Vikings to call the 6th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- Alexander Mattison has rushed for a lot more adjusted yards per game (48.0) this year than he did last year (16.0).
Cons
- A passing game script is suggested by the Vikings being a -3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest.
- Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Vikings to run on 37.1% of their chances: the 7th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
- The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.
- The leading projections forecast Alexander Mattison to be a much smaller part of his team’s rushing attack in this game (48.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (66.0% in games he has played).
- The Falcons defense boasts the 10th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, allowing just 4.00 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
Projection
THE BLITZ
47
Rushing Yards
47
Rushing Yards
