Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Isiah PachecoRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Chiefs vs. Dolphins
Right now, Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-115) after it opened @ 60.5 (-110).
Pros
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have 130.1 total plays called: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.
- After making up 40.9% of his team’s rushing play calls last season, Isiah Pacheco has been called on more in the ground game this season, currently accounting for 59.9%.
- The Chiefs offensive line ranks as the best in the NFL last year at blocking for the run game.
- Isiah Pacheco has run for a lot more adjusted yards per game (60.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).
- The Miami defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs as the least run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 31.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Rushing Yards
55
Rushing Yards
