Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Week 9 of the NFL season starts with a critical AFC matchup between the Titans and Steelers. Tennessee’s offense exploded in the first start by rookie quarterback Will Levis, earning a 28-23 upset over the Falcons. Levis threw for four touchdowns, including three to wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins.
The Titans are now 3-4, and in a huge battle for a playoff spot with 11 teams separated by just two games in the AFC Wild Card race.
One of those teams is Pittsburgh, who is just one game ahead of Tennessee, and among three AFC North teams carrying identical 4-3 records. The Steelers stumbled with a 20-10 home loss to Jacksonville, after winning four of their previous five matchups. This is a critical Week 9 game for both teams.
Each week, I will select my favorite prop bets on the Thursday night slate. You can find all our Week 6 player projections here at FTNBets. All of the available betting lines for this week’s opening matchup are available on our FTNBets Prop Shop, where you can easily shop around for the sportsbook with the best odds on each player or team.
Let’s take a look at my favorite prop for Week 9’s Thursday night matchup!
Week 9 Player Prop
Diontae Johnson Over 57.5 Receiving Yards
(-110, Bet365)
The Pittsburgh struggles on offense can be directly linked to the absence of wide receiver Diontae Johnson. Per our FTN Splits Tool, everything’s better with the Pittsburgh offense when Johnson is on the field.
Johnson decreases the rushing attempts by 5.92% and increases the pass attempts by 11.25%. He is one of the most electric wideouts in the game and is now fully healthy after missing five weeks with a hamstring injury. In his first game back, Johnson garnered 14 targets and posted eight receptions for 85 receiving yards.
Johnson will face a Tennessee defense that is a true pass funnel. The Titans rank second-best in run defense and 25th against the pass per DVOA. Even more important, Tennessee ranks dead last in DVOA against opposing WR1s, allowing a whopping 96.6 receiving yards per game to the opposition’s top wideout.
Johnson’s presence is critical to the efficiency of the Steelers offense and will be heavily targeted with either Kenny Pickett or Mitch Trubisky. While Thursday night games are notoriously sloppy, Johnson should see enough volume to crest this number in a crucial home game for the Steelers.
