Week 9 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Gus Edwards from EV Insight

Gus EdwardsRushing Yards

Right now, Gus Edwards’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-115) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).

Pros

The Ravens are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to run on 49.8% of their downs: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.
The projections expect Gus Edwards to earn 16.5 carries in this week’s contest, on balance, putting him in the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs.
While Gus Edwards has garnered 39.4% of his team’s carries in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a much bigger part of Baltimore’s running game in this week’s game at 50.2%.
With an outstanding tally of 54.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (82nd percentile), Gus Edwards has been among the top RBs in the league this year.

Cons

The Ravens have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Right now, the 2nd-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Baltimore Ravens.
This year, the shaky Seahawks run defense has surrendered a colossal 3.51 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition’s rushing attack: the 31st-biggest rate in football.
As it relates to the linebackers’ role in stopping the run, Seattle’s group of LBs has been very good this year, projecting as the 6th-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards