Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Gus EdwardsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Ravens vs. Seahawks
Right now, Gus Edwards’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-115) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Ravens are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to run on 49.8% of their downs: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.
- The projections expect Gus Edwards to earn 16.5 carries in this week’s contest, on balance, putting him in the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs.
- While Gus Edwards has garnered 39.4% of his team’s carries in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a much bigger part of Baltimore’s running game in this week’s game at 50.2%.
- With an outstanding tally of 54.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (82nd percentile), Gus Edwards has been among the top RBs in the league this year.
Cons
- The Ravens have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- Right now, the 2nd-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Baltimore Ravens.
- This year, the shaky Seahawks run defense has surrendered a colossal 3.51 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition’s rushing attack: the 31st-biggest rate in football.
- As it relates to the linebackers’ role in stopping the run, Seattle’s group of LBs has been very good this year, projecting as the 6th-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards
71
Rushing Yards
