Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Devin SingletaryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Jets vs. Bills
Right now, Devin Singletary’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-105) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Devin Singletary to accrue 11.2 carries in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
- The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 8th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 38.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Devin Singletary to be a much smaller part of his team’s run game this week (43.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (55.5% in games he has played).
- The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.
- The New York Jets defense owns the 2nd-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, conceding just 4.02 yards-per-carry.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Rushing Yards
50
Rushing Yards
