Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for T.J. Hockenson from EV Insight

T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards

Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (-142/+104).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 34.5 (+104) after it opened @ 38.5 (-115).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to total 5.3 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.
T.J. Hockenson has accrued a colossal 48.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile among TEs.

Cons

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
T.J. Hockenson’s 37.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 48.2.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
T.J. Hockenson’s sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 74.4% to 62.3%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards