Week 9 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Breece Hall from EV Insight

Breece HallRushing Yards

Right now, Breece Hall’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-115) after it opened @ 57.5 (-110).

Pros

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have 130.6 plays on offense run: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast Breece Hall to notch 16.4 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
The leading projections forecast Breece Hall to be a much bigger part of his offense’s ground game in this game (61.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (51.3% in games he has played).
With an impressive tally of 61.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (86th percentile), Breece Hall ranks as one of the best pure runners in the NFL this year.
Breece Hall’s ground efficiency (5.45 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (97th percentile among running backs).

Cons

The Jets will be forced to utilize backup QB Zach Wilson in this week’s game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Jets to run on 41.2% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jets this year (a measly 52.9 per game on average).
The opposing side have rushed for the 10th-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 98.0 per game) versus the Chargers defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
74
Rushing Yards