Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Breece HallRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Jets vs. Chargers
Right now, Breece Hall’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-115) after it opened @ 57.5 (-110).
Pros
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have 130.6 plays on offense run: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.
- The leading projections forecast Breece Hall to notch 16.4 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
- The leading projections forecast Breece Hall to be a much bigger part of his offense’s ground game in this game (61.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (51.3% in games he has played).
- With an impressive tally of 61.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (86th percentile), Breece Hall ranks as one of the best pure runners in the NFL this year.
- Breece Hall’s ground efficiency (5.45 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (97th percentile among running backs).
Cons
- The Jets will be forced to utilize backup QB Zach Wilson in this week’s game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Jets to run on 41.2% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- The lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jets this year (a measly 52.9 per game on average).
- The opposing side have rushed for the 10th-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 98.0 per game) versus the Chargers defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
74
Rushing Yards
74
Rushing Yards
