NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Austin EkelerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Falcons vs. Chargers
Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 57.5 (-125) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense as the 3rd-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.09 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Austin Ekeler to total 13.3 carries this week, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among running backs.
- Austin Ekeler has received 57.9% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
- Austin Ekeler has grinded out 54.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest figures in football among running backs (75th percentile).
- The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 34.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
- Austin Ekeler has been among the bottom running backs in the league at generating extra running yardage, averaging a measly 2.75 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 25th percentile.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have faced a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards
59
Rushing Yards
