NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Another week, another fight card. This week the UFC keeps the cage in Vegas at the Apex for Rodriguez vs. Lemos. Amanda Lemos is coming off a submission win against Michele Waterston-Gomez, while Marina Rodriguez beat Xio Yanan by split decision. In the co-main event, the hard-hitting Daniel “D-Rod” Rodriguez faces off against crafty UFC vet Neil Magny. Mangy is coming off a submission loss this past June, while D-Rod is coming off a controversial split decision win in September over Jingliang Li.
This card isn’t filled with superstars, but it has the potential for fireworks and a lot of opportunities to cash some props and underdogs! Below I will be breaking down each fight and picking out the best bets and leans for each. You may not recognize many of the names in this article, but that’s why you have me in your corner. All odds are per BetMGM.
Main Card
Lemos vs. Rodriguez
Marina Rodriguez -225, Amanda Lemos +180
This matchup, a battle of precision vs. power, could set up a fighter for a title shot. Lemos is 12-2-1 overall in her pro career, 6-2 in the UFC. A vicious striker and finisher, Lemos doesn’t look to the judges to decide the outcome of her fights. Lemos has four first-round finishes in the UFC and averages under seven minutes of fight time. She strikes with bad intentions and comes out hot in the first round, and I expect her to look for the finish early against the much more calculated but still dangerous Rodriguez. Lemos averages 4.87 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing nearly the same at 4.40 strikes per minute. She doesn’t mind taking one to give one, as most of her opponents don’t throw many back once Lemos connects. Lemos is powerful and accurate, as she connects on 57% of her strikes. Lemos seems to have an answer anywhere the fight goes but shows a kink in her gas tank the deeper the war gets. Lemos carries her power in a three-round fight well. Still, in a five-round main event against an efficient striker like Marina Rodriguez, she will have to use her power wisely and not gas herself out looking for an early finish. Lemos has gone the distance twice in her UFC career, and both times she slowed in the late stages of the fight. I suspect this line to be this wide because Lemos has never been in a five-round fight, and this will be Rodriguez’ third time headlining a card. Experience is a massive factor in this fight, and the durability of Rodriguez will be tested early and often in the first three rounds. If this makes it into the championship rounds, Lemos will prove whether she is ready to be an actual No. 1 contender in the strawweight division. The paths to victory in this fight are decision for Rodriguez and finish for Lemos. Ideally, Lemos wants to finish this fight within the first three rounds before her gas tank gets tested in deep waters. For Rodriguez, she will have to put her 57% defensive rate to work if she hopes to drag Lemos into deep waters where she can use her movement and jab to outpoint the heavy-hitting Lemos. Give me the dog in this matchup, as I expect her to get up on the cards early with a few flash knockdowns and make Rodriguez play catchup late if it even gets that far.
The Bet: Amanda Lemos ML +180/Lemos vs. Rodriguez over 3.5 rounds -145
Rodriguez vs. Magny
Neil Magny -115, Daniel Rodriguez -105
The co-main event features the crafty veteran Magny vs. the hard-hitting and always-entertaining Rodriguez. Rodriguez made his way into the UFC after making his debut on the Contender Series in 2019. Rodriguez is 17-2-0 overall in his pro career and 7-1-0 in the UFC. D-Rod has two wins by knockout, one by sub and four by decision, with his only loss coming by decision to Nicholas Dalby. Rodriguez is a pressure fighter and doesn’t take many steps backward once the bell sounds; he averages 7.75 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.35 strikes per minute. It’s safe to say D-Rod comes to bang and can take it just as good as he can give it. Rodriguez doesn’t attempt many takedowns but defends them at a 73% rate. Rodriguez will have to lean on his takedown defense in this matchup, as I expect Magny to mix in takedowns and wrestling with his game plan on Saturday night. Magny has a two-inch reach advantage coupled with a six-inch reach advantage. Still, it wouldn’t be wise for Magny to get into a boxing match. Brawling in a phone booth would play into the hands of Rodriguez and getting flashed knocked down in his matchup against Griffin gave a clear indication of how things can go for Magny if he decides to stand and bang with D-Rod. Magny averages 3.39 significant strikes landed per minute. Magny is typically a volume fighter who doesn’t look to knock you out with one punch but instead puts pace and rhythm on his opponents until they break. Magny absorbs 2.16 strikes per minute, which shows patience and good defense. Still, in this matchup, I see Magny fighting off his back foot, and that can spell trouble for the 10-year veteran if he can’t get this fight to the ground. Magny averages 2.31 takedowns per 15 minutes but only lands those takedowns 40% of attempts. Those takedown attempts seem to only happen when Magny is hurt or can’t deal with his opponent’s strikes. From a betting perspective, I will be backing D-Rod as he has more momentum coming into this fight, considering the power difference and the fact that Magny was finished his last time out. I expect Magny to be cautious and wrestle from early on in this fight; if he can’t produce any takedowns, though, he is in for a long night, and I can see D-rod finding a late finish or winning on the cards.
The Bet: Daniel Rodriguez ML -105/Rodriguez in Round 3 or decision +185
Ulanbekov vs. Maness
Nate Maness +185, Tagir Ulanbekov -225
It’s a new weight class and another ranked opponent for Maness when he faces the No. 15 flyweight in the world, Ulanbekov. Both fighters are coming off tough decision losses and are looking to get back in the win column with a win this weekend. Maness suffered his second-ever pro loss when he faced off with Team Khabib protégé Umar Nurmagomedov his last time out. He didn’t get finished and survived all three rounds, but outside of that fact, he didn’t do much else and lost a clear 30-27 decision. Ulanbekov is more than capable of putting on the same performance, and outside of being the bigger fighter, I don’t see many advantages for Maness in this fight. Maness does carry power in his hands, but if he doesn’t have the opportunity to strike, what difference does it make? With a fight time average of 15 minutes, I expect Ulanbekov to follow the blueprint laid out by Cousin Umar and grind on Maness for all 15 minutes of this fight. Another interesting fact is that Maness only averages 1.91 significant strikes landed per minute, and against Ulanbekov, who averages 3.48 significant strikes, that may not be enough. Maness will have to keep this fight standing and hope to land damaging strikes that stun Ulanbekov. Still, considering how Ulanbekov lost his last fight and how seriously it affected him, I expect his training with Umar Nurmagomedov, who is also training for a championship fight of his own, this camp will pay dividends. He will stick to the game plan and welcome Maness to a new division with a loss.
The Bet: Ulanbekov by points -110
Madsen vs. Dawson
Mark Madsen +180, Grant Dawson -210
Two of the sport’s top grapplers step into the octagon Saturday when Olympian Madsen faces Dawson. Two fighters who have yet to lose in their UFC careers, this matchup is a grappler’s dream, and I cannot wait for it. Dawson is 18-1-1 overall as a pro and has been in the UFC since 2019, going 6-0-1 in the promotion. Madsen is 12-0-0 overall and, like Dawson, has been in the UFC since 2019; Madsen has one win by KO/TKO and three wins by decision, making him 4-0 in the UFC. Grant has one win by KO/TKOtko, three by submission and two by decision in the UFC since joining the promotion. Grant averages 3.97 takedowns per 15 minutes while attempting 1.4 submissions; Madsen averages 3.90 takedowns per 15 minutes but doesn’t really attempt submissions. The most significant difference between the fighters is what they do with the fight once it gets to the ground, as Madsen uses takedowns for control time while Dawson looks for the finish using jiujitsu. Madsen and Dawson are similar in height and reach and average the same number of significant strikes, with just over three landed per minute. Both fighters aren’t world-class strikers but possess power and are capable of ending a fight by knockout, and considering that they are both grapplers, this match may very well end up becoming an amateur boxing match. They may cancel each other out in the wrestling department and keep this one on the feet. The fighter who gets a late takedown or the first takedown may dictate or win this fight, as I expect both fighters to be able to stand back up if their backs hit the ground. Still, as the fight continues and the number of scrambles pile up, someone’s gas tank will break, and the fighter who can capitalize will win. A lot of folks like Madsen for the upset, and even he is confident in this matchup, but after he was taken down in his fight vs. Vinc Pichel, who is not a wrestler; I expect Dawson to find takedowns and even if he gets the first couple negated, he will eventually find the takedown and break Madsen late and find the finish or win dominantly on the scorecards.
The Bet: Grant Dawson by submission or decision -165/Dawson in Round 3 or decision +100
Prelims
Minner vs. Nuerdanbieke
Derrick Minner +170, Shaylin Nuerdanbieke -205
In the feature prelim of the night, Minner squares up with “The Wolverine” Nuerdanbieke. Minner made an appearance on the Contender Series in 2019 and loss by submission and wasn’t back in the UFC until 2020, when he made an official debut against Grant Dawson, which he also lost by submission. Minner is currently on a two-fight losing streak and overall is 2-3-0 as a professional in the UFC and looks to get back in the win column this weekend. Looking to spoil those plans is Nuerdanbieke, who is opposite of Minner and currently on a two-fight win streak. Shaylin is 2-1-0 in the UFC and has been with the promotion since 2021. Nuerdanbieke averages 15 minutes of fight time and uses his grappling to find paths to victory as he averages three takedowns per 15 minutes while averaging a mere 1.80 significant strikes landed per minute. It’s clear where Nuerdanbieke wants to take this fight and with all of his wins coming by decision thus far in the UFC, I expect him to stick to the game plan look for takedowns. Keep in mind Nuerdanbieke has an extensive record, and with 10 wins by submission, 10 wins by decision and 17 by knockout, it is always a possibility Shaylin can find a finish if the opportunity presents itself. It is important to note that although Minner may be taken down in this fight, he has 22 wins by submission, one by knockout and three by decision; Minner is a finisher and will be looking for the finish every second that it is on the ground, which is why this fight could be a grind and from a betting perspective I don’t think the lines should be this wide when you compare the fighters styles. Shayilan has power when he strikes but he does get a bit wild when he swings and that could be dangerous for Minner but also a good thing if he can capitalize on an over extension and put Nuerdanbieke on his back. Still, both of these fighters push a relentless pace and from the sound of the bell it should be fireworks. I expect there to be a lot of near finishes but the durabilities of both fighters should see them through to the judges’ scorecards.
The Bet: Nuerdanbieke vs. Minner fight goes the distance +135
Bautista vs. Lopez
Mario Bautista -300, Benito Lopez +240
Bautista and Lopez square off in the bantamweight division Saturday night in a matchup between two high-level strikers that should produce fireworks and certainly has Fight of the Night potential. Bautista averages eight minutes of fight time while producing 5.27 significant strikes landed per minute; he’s very accurate when he strikes and has good boxing technique landing on 48% of strikes thrown. Bautista also mixes in his wrestling well and averages 2.17 takedowns per 15 minutes while defending 66% of takedowns coming his way. He won’t have to worry much about the takedown in this matchup though as Lopez attempts zero takedowns per 15 minutes but does defend them at a 78% rate. So while Bautista may attempt takedowns I suspect him to not waste much energy on them and instead feint the takedowns to limit the kick-heavy attack of Lopez. The more Lopez has to worry about the takedowns the less he will throw naked leg kicks and risk the chance of getting put on his back. This is Lopez’ toughest test to date and given the fact that he hasn’t been in the octagon since 2019 I don’t expect this fight to go in his favor. Give me Bautista to crowd Lopez and get this fight to the ground where he can finish by submission or grind out a decision win.
The Bet: Mario Bautista by submission or decision -125
Munoz vs. Sholinian
Johnny Munoz Jr. -250, Liudvik Shotlian +200
Two newcomers step into the octagon this weekend when Munoz faces Sholnian in the bantamweight division. Munoz is 11-2-0 overall as a pro and 1-2-0 since he made his debut in the UFC in 2020. Sholnian is 9-2-1 overall as a pro and 0-1-0 since making his UFC debut in 2021, a contestant on Ultimate Fighter season 29, Sholnian is no stranger to the octagon in the apex and should feel right at home. Sholnian doesn’t have a high output as he averages a mere 1.27 significant strikes landed per minute. He does attempt some takedowns but rather keep the fight standing. Munoz is a Jiujitsu black belt and dangerous if the fight hits the canvas. He averages 2.74 significant strikes landed per minute while mixing in 2.54 takedowns per 15 minutes. With seven wins by submission on his record there is no secret where Munoz would like to end this fight and Sholnian has never been stopped in his pro career so I expect this fight to be a grind between two talented fighters. From a betting perspective, I think the lines are a bit wide again, but I still believe that Munoz will do enough to get the job done.
The Bet: Munoz vs. Sholnian fight goes the distance -185
Hadley vs. Candelario
Jake Hadley -275, Carlos Candelario +220
Another exciting matchup takes place in the prelims when UFC newcomers Candelario faces Hadley in the flyweight division. Hadley is 8-1-0 as a professional and 0-1-0 since joining the UFC this year. Hadley averages 1.82 significant strikes per minute while mixing in a high-level ground game that has found four submission wins, two KO/TKO wins by ground-and-pound and two decision wins his pro career. Hadley has had a bit of an up and down with the promotion as he was highly touted coming in but after having a dust up with the UFC brass his hopes of ever joining the UFC were in jeopardy if he didn’t find an impressive win on the contender series. After find a second-round submission, Hadley made his debut in 2022 and lost a disappointing decision to Alan Nascimeinto. Still with one loss on his UFC record, Hadley has the opportunity to get into the win column this weekend when he fights another Contender Series alum Candelario. After taking two attempts on the contender series, the fight that got him the contract was a split decision loss to victor Altamirano in an absolute war that got Dana White out of his seat afterward. Candelario brings a brawling style to the octagon and looks to get fights up against the cage and onto the ground if he can. Candelario averages 2.33 takedowns per 15 minutes and against the 42% defensive rate of Hadley he should find some success in getting this bout to the ground. Once on the ground Candelario will have to stay out of Sub attempts and hope to drown Hadley. Both fighters match up well and it’s a very close fight to call. From a betting perspective I believe this fight will be a scrap and another fight of the night potential and personally I will be taking Hadley to win by submission or decision.
The Bet: Jake Hadley by submission or decision (-130)
