College Football Games of the Week: Week 10

This week we are looking at the biggest matchups that provide us with the best moneymaking opportunities across college football. After breaking down this week’s best games, these are the lines in these big games where I see the largest edges in the market.

Tennessee vs. Georgia

(Georgia -7.5, O/U 66.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The implications for this game are pretty straightforward. The winner of this game likely wins the SEC East and represents the division in the SEC Championship game, with a chance to punch a ticket to the College Football Playoff. The loser will face an uphill battle and likely need some help in order to have a chance at playing for the championship.

Tennessee is in the midst of its best season in years and has all of the makings of a perfect Cinderella team. Meanwhile, Georgia is the defending National Champion and is looking to continue their dominance over this division.

All of Tennessee’s success has come from Hendon Hooker and what is possibly the best offense in the nation. The Volunteers rank as the top offense by SP+ and are sixth in success rate. With Hooker at the helm, Tennessee ranks third in passing success rate and PPA. The rushing attack has not been too shabby either as they are 13th in rushing success rate and 23rd in PPA. Rushing explosiveness has been the one issue for this offense as they rank 76th in this category.

What Tennessee’s offense has been on their side of the ball is what Georgia has been on defense. The Bulldogs rank second in SP+ and are fourth in the nation in success rate. The only true weakness for this defense is that they have allowed a moderate amount of explosive pass plays, ranking 71st in pass explosiveness. Across the board, every single other metric has this as one of the top units in the country.

Surprisingly, it’s Georgia’s air game that has been leading the charge this year. The Bulldogs are passing at the No. 43 rate in the country despite being in a positive game script for most of their games. They rank fifth in passing success rate and first in rushing success rate. The primary flaw for this offense is their lack of explosive passes. UGA ranks 127th in the country in pass explosiveness.

If Tennessee doesn’t make the playoff this season, it will likely be because their defense let them down. This unit is 44th in success rate and is ranked 34th by SP+. This isn’t a putrid defense that brings nothing to the table, but it also has not played up to the standards of most SEC defenses.

The rushing defense for the Volunteers has actually been good, ranking 14th in success rate and 17th in PPA despite facing the 2nd most rushes in the nation. Where they can be exposed is in the passing game, where they rank 78th in success rate and 60th in PPA. However, Tennessee has been good at preventing big pass plays as they rank 35th in pass explosiveness allowed. 

I think Tennessee should be able to hang around in this game, but the raucous atmosphere in Athens is enough to keep the Volunteers from being my best bet. Instead, I like the under in this game. Explosive plays will be hard to come by so these teams will have to rely on long offensive drives in order to score. This, mixed with a strong Georgia defense and a good Tennessee run defense, leads me to believe that this game will end up being a lower-scoring affair than what the market currently believes.

The Pick

Under 66.5 Points. Bet to Under 63.5

Alabama vs. LSU

(Alabama -13, O/U 56.5, BetRivers)

For years, this game would always be the biggest matchup of the regular season and was even once dubbed the Game of the Century. So it’s ironic that this is also taking place on the weekend of this year’s biggest game in the SEC.

After falling to Tennessee earlier this year, Alabama is now in must-win territory if they want to have a shot at the College Football Playoff. With a win this weekend, LSU could even overtake Alabama for the lead in the SEC West and possibly have an opportunity to play for the conference championship in Atlanta.

LSU’s success this season under Brian Kelly has been fueled almost entirely by the offense. LSU ranks 10th in success rate this season and has the 27th highest rated offense by SP+. Despite their high level of success, hitting big plays has been an issue for the Tigers. They rank just 90th in the country in explosiveness.

The Tigers have been strong both passing and running the ball, ranking 17th and fifth in success rate in those two categories respectively. The big play issues stem from the pass game, where they rank 109th in explosiveness. Jayden Daniels will need to make some big plays with his arm in order for LSU to pull off the upset.

Unfortunately for the Tigers, Alabama’s defense has been playing at an elite level, as is customary for them. The Crimson Tide rank fifth in defense by SP+ and are 17th in success rate. They are 13th against the pass and 31st in success rate against the run. In what will be a mismatch for LSU, the Tide also are great at preventing big plays as they rank 15th in pass explosiveness against and 21st in run explosiveness against. Scoring against Alabama’s defense will be a tough test without being able to rely on any explosive plays.

Similar to the defense, this Alabama offense has also performed at a high level. They are 30th in success rate and fifth in SP+, despite Bryce Young having to miss time with an injury. 

There are two primary weaknesses for this LSU defense. The Tigers can be taken advantage of on the ground and also through big pass plays. Their defense ranks 74th in success rate against the run and 83rd in PPA against the run. While they have defended the pass well overall, ranking 24th in passing success rate against, they’ve had some huge mistakes, resulting in a ranking of 120th in passing defense explosiveness.

The 15^th-most explosive passing attack in the country should be able to take advantage of this weakness. Alabama also runs at the 30^th-highest rate in college football and to great effect, ranking 10th in PPA, 31st in success rate, and 21st in explosiveness. 

While LSU winning would make for a great story, Alabama has the advantages in all of the right places to exploit this Tigers team and pick up an easy win at home.

The Pick

Alabama -13. Bet to -13.5